Somebody Knew This Takeover Was Coming, and I Traded With Them

The Options Trade That Gave Away A Takeover Weeks Early

CCC sells software that helps auto insurers, repair shops and carmakers run their business. It’s not the kind of stock that usually draws a crowd in the options market.

So think about this. Why do you think they were buying the December calls?

Because they knew this was coming.

Every day, I watch where the big money goes in the options market, and when somebody keeps buying calls with no news to explain it, I want to be on the same side.

When the GTCR and Elliott report hit, CCC jumped about 11% in after-hours trading.

This morning the room had a choice. Take the 75% win and go home, or stick around?

I took the win. Being more aggressive with these closes has played to our benefit, and I think we’d all agree on that.

Why I Think GFL Environmental Ends Up Above $50

Now look at GFL Environmental (GFL), the trash and recycling company.

Back in July, Bloomberg reported that GFL was weighing a deal to go private after buyout firms showed interest. Nothing has been announced since.

But the options market is acting weird. Today, traders sold about 42,000 of the October $45 calls and bought the November $45 and $50 calls. Instead of giving up on the bet, they pushed it out another month.

This one smells like a buyout. I think this is going to be somewhere above $50. There’s something screwy here.

Who would want them? I’d look at Waste Management or Republic Services, or maybe a utility like NextEra.

If you’re still sitting on the October $45s, fine. Go get the Novembers.

Know what you’re signing up for. Rumors aren’t deals, and if nothing gets announced before November expiration, those calls can go to zero. That’s why I keep these bets small.

As I told the room, GFL is otherwise known as Good Freaking Luck.

How To Follow The Money With Me

This is exactly what Delta Strike is built for.

I track the big institutional money in the options market and trade quick swings on cheap options, about $100 a trade on average and two or three positions a week.

Since early September, I’ve won 14 of my last 16 trades. Past results don’t promise future ones, but I like trading on the same side as the people who seem to know something.

The flash sale ends tonight at 11:59 p.m. ET.

Join Delta Strike Before The Sale Ends

Your only option,

Mark Sebastian

P.S. There’s a third stock I’m watching with the same kind of weird call buying. I told the room I have a weird feeling it’s going to make our year. Delta Strike members will hear about it first, and the sale ends at midnight.

 

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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About the Author

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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