Anthropic’s biggest shareholders are also its biggest suppliers.
According to its leaked IPO prospectus, Anthropic has committed to spend $518 billion on cloud computing in the coming years. About $221 billion of that goes to Amazon and Google, the same 2 companies that own the biggest stakes in it outside its founders.
Think of it like the Godfather. The family owns a piece of your store, and one way or another, it needs to get paid.
Below, I’ll show you why that tangle could make or break the biggest IPO in history.
I’ll also show you the scenario where it all turns into 2000 again, and the 3 phases I’m using to trade around it without owning a share.
The leak, first reported by Reuters, confirmed a lot of what we expected. Revenue grew 12-fold in 2025 to nearly $4.6 billion, and Anthropic lost a little over $8 billion on an operating basis while ending the year with about $20 billion in cash and investments.
The headline net loss was closer to $42 billion, but roughly $34 billion of that was a non-cash accounting charge, not money that went out the door.
2026 is where it gets interesting. Second-quarter revenue alone reached $11.5 billion, more than all of 2025, and the company is running at an operating profit on an adjusted basis, which leaves out certain non-cash costs. Backers think it could list at more than $2 trillion, likely after the November midterms.
Amazon and Google have invested billions in Anthropic while also supplying the cloud computing it needs to train and run Claude. Microsoft and SpaceX come next on the list of commitments, but the real tangle runs through Amazon and Google, because they own the biggest stakes.
So they’re the owners, and they’re also the biggest suppliers. That gives them 2 ways to play it.
They can play it like a mob boss.
Picture Anthropic as a corner store in 1920s Brooklyn. The Godfather has an ownership interest, and he needs to get paid.
Or they can protect the value of their stake, because once Anthropic is public, the market reprices that stake every single day. In that case, they work with Anthropic to make it succeed.
My guess is it lands somewhere in between. But think about how strange this is for Anthropic. It has a $110 billion commitment to Amazon, one of its biggest shareholders, which means it’s committed to spending $110 billion with one of its own owners.
Google is worth more than $4 trillion, and it’s counting on billions of dollars a year from Anthropic and OpenAI. If both run into trouble at the same time, Google gets less revenue, after already spending money to build the capacity.
If that happens, the bubble bursts, and this turns into 2000 all over again.
The other scenario is that AI becomes a real, major, profitable business, and all that computing power turns out to be worth it. The truth is, we don’t know which one we get, and that’s true of every IPO.
In 1994, when they were pitching you dial-up internet, nobody knew where it was going. Some of the biggest names of 2001, like AOL and Yahoo, ended up as borderline worthless pieces of other companies. The difference this time is that AOL wasn’t owned by the biggest companies on earth.
I won’t own a single share of Anthropic stock. I’m trading the options around it, long or short, through 3 phases.
The first is the pre-IPO phase, where we are now, when the suppliers and the linked names move. Ahead of the SpaceX IPO, Rocket Lab went from $76 to $152 between May 7 and June 1, and then some of those names pulled back as money rotated into the IPO itself.
The second is the IPO window, from the week before the IPO to about 4 days after, when options list on Anthropic. Once they do, we’re trading Anthropic and all the names around it.
The third is the move into lockups, when early shareholders can finally sell, and the stock matures into a liquid, tradable company. That transition takes about another 30 days.
I’ve already put on 2 trades with my Halo members, and I’m adding 1 or 2 more tomorrow.
Halo stands for Hunting Anthropic Linked Options, and we’re going to trade every phase of this IPO together.
That means the pre-IPO moves happening right now, the day options list, and the run into the lockups, with alerts on every trade and a live briefing every week.
The pre-IPO window is already open, and there’s still time to get into the 2 trades I’ve put on.
You can also call my team at 888-872-3301 with any questions.
Your only option,
Mark Sebastian
P.S. One of the best questions I got today was when the lockup shares get released. That isn’t public yet, because Anthropic has to pick its IPO date first. As soon as we know, we’ll set it up together in Halo.