Dear Trader,

Mark's going live today at 10:00 AM ET with 8 stock picks from the Option Pit trading team.

Here's the list…

The loves:

1. Tim's got a Wall Street bank that keeps printing money no matter what the 10-year Treasury does.
2. Mark's on a trading app that went public last year and is quietly stealing the retail crowd.
3. Licia's picking the biggest retailer in the country, which tells you something about where she thinks the consumer is headed.
4. Andrew's going international with a brokerage most Americans have never heard of.

The hates:

1. Tim wants to short the bounce in an insurance broker that just did a very expensive deal.
2. Mark's fading the most-owned stock on the planet, and yes, he knows how that sounds.
3. Licia's putting one of the three or four biggest companies on earth on the sell side.
4. Andrew's going after an apparel company that owns brands you've bought and forgotten about, right as tariffs start hitting jackets and T-shirts.

He'll also get into the three stories below before he starts on the list: oil pushing $100, Canada's new 50% tariffs, and a 10-year Treasury sitting at 4.81%.

One more thing. Eight picks is where the free show stops. Ticker Highlight Show is where Mark and the team take those eight and narrow them down to the single best option play.

If you want to see that part, join here before he goes live.

Click this link to jump to the State of the Market live room and let’s you catch Garrett Baldwin’s I’d Trade That show before the State of the Market.

This link adds State of the Market to your calendar.

The Daily News Breakdown

SIREN: Investors walked into Jackson Hole hoping the new Fed chair would hint at a cut, and Kevin Warsh spent his debut keynote talking about inflation instead. He called the recent numbers concerning, said prices deserve the Fed's main focus, and suggested financial conditions still aren't restrictive enough. Yields jumped and all three major indexes closed lower.

Futures now put the odds of a September hike near 61%, which is a big repricing for anyone who spent the summer waiting on cuts. Citi's Scott Chronert still likes the fundamentals but calls the higher-rate assumption a sentiment headwind, which is a polite way of saying multiples get harder to justify. Earnings can stay strong and stocks can still get cheaper.

SNEAKER: US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz Sunday, Iran answered with drones aimed at Jordan and the UAE, and crude gapped higher on the open. Brent gained roughly 3% to clear $90 for the first time in about a week, and WTI tacked on 4% to trade above $86.

Six months into this war, Persian Gulf flows are running around two-thirds of pre-war levels, and Goldman says strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have pushed refined product margins to new highs. Gasoline is averaging $4.08 with midterms two months out. Bessent is threatening sanctions on anybody doing business with Tehran, which sounds tough until you remember China takes about 90% of Iran's crude.

SIGN: The VIX printed 14.13 on Friday, its lowest level of 2026, right before the stretch of the calendar where it has historically run higher. Median VIX since 1990 sits near 16.5 in late August, climbs toward 18 by mid-September, and hits about 19 in early October. September has been the S&P 500's worst month since 1950 at an average -0.6%, and -0.8% in midterm years like this one.

October and November have been the payback, averaging +3.0% and +2.8% in midterms. Keep in mind that implied volatility prices the size of the expected move and says nothing about direction. A VIX in the high teens this fall would be perfectly ordinary, and anyone who's only traded a 14-handle should plan for it.