Tomorrow morning, SpaceX goes public.

The biggest IPO in history. A trillion-dollar-plus company, $135 a share, $75 billion raised in a single shot.

Aramco raised $30 billion and that was the record, and they had a trillion dollars of oil sitting under the ground. This thing is in a different universe.

The hype is something I've never seen in my career.

Jamie Dimon was pitching individual JPMorgan clients to get in early. Fidelity, a fund company that historically wants you in funds and nothing else, just opened the IPO to retail and dropped its minimum from $500,000 to $2,000.

That erases about 99% of the wall that used to keep regular investors out. When Fidelity bends 80 years of habit to let you in the door, you pay attention.

And here's the kicker on supply. They're only floating about 5% of the company. Ninety-five percent stays locked up with the big institutions who were pals with Elon back in the PayPal and Tesla days.

So you've got the loudest demand in market history pointed at a tiny sliver of stock. It's Cabbage Patch Kids at Toys R Us. Two hundred dolls on the shelf and a thousand people swinging shopping carts to get one.

So you'd think I'd be first in line.

I'm not.

Keep Reading.

I'm not buying it tomorrow. I'm not shorting it. I'm not buying puts on it. I'm not touching SpaceX at all.

I've spent most of my life as a market maker, and the thing I learned watching IPO after IPO is that the day itself is a coin toss times a million.

The stock flies, all the mechanical demand gets filled, and then comes the part nobody talks about: the now what. The buyers are sated. The excitement leaks out. And that hangover doesn't stay inside SpaceX. It spills into the whole market.

That's where I want to be. Not in the stock. In the move the stock leaves behind.

Look at what this market has already been doing. Last Friday, down 2%. Tuesday, down 2.8%. Wednesday, down 1.7%.

That's three big down days in a week, and that was before the largest capital event in history drops into the middle of it. People have been selling everything, even Bitcoin, to raise cash to buy this IPO.

That's a lot of the weakness right there.

Here's the one thing I actually know about tomorrow.

I don't know if SpaceX pops or sags. Nobody does. But I know the market is going to move.

Over the last 12 years, the S&P 500 has moved at least 2% within 30 days 96% of the time. Lately it's doing that in a week. Sometimes in a day. You almost never get a statistic that clean in this business.

So I built a trade around the one near-certainty instead of the coin toss. I'm not betting on direction. I'm betting on motion.

And here's the part that makes me smile.

Because of the way the market prices fear, puts run two to three times the price of calls the same distance out. So I structured it asymmetric. If I'm right and we sell off 3% in the next seven days, I'm targeting 100%. If I'm wrong and we rally 3% instead, that side pays me more, around 225%.

Good news, I 2X. Bad news, I 3X. I'm happy to be wrong on this one.

The only way it really misses is if the market does nothing at all for a week, which, with the VIX at 22 and a $75 billion vacuum opening tomorrow, is the least likely thing I can imagine.

I'm placing this trade today at noon Eastern. I'm calling it the SpaceX 2X. It goes out inside Weekly Profit Cycles, where I build a trade like this every single week off that same 2% premise.

If you want this one before it drops, the door's open now.

Get the SpaceX 2X Trade While You Still Can.

– Andrew Giovinazzi