FRANK GREGORY
September 2nd, 2025
Hey Influence Traders,
Averting a shutdown is never easy, but almost always occurs.
But this time tensions are high.
Even among those on either side of the aisle willing to work together, divisions are sharp.
Tariff Mania
Budget discussions are even more complicated with Trump’s key revenue driver, Tariffs, currently off the table.
Earlier this year, a three-judge panel of the Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump’s tariffs exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Last week, the en banc U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld the ruling.
The court concluded that Congress had not clearly delegated broad tariff-setting powers to the executive branch.
They also concluded that the IEEPA was designed for limited emergencies rather than wholesale trade policy.
The stay on the injunction expires in mid-October, potentially setting up Supreme Court review.
The fiscal stakes are enormous.
Trump’s second-term tariff program had already generated roughly $108 billion in customs and excise revenue in the first nine months of 2025.
That’s almost 6% of federal revenue.
If the ruling stands, revenues could fall sharply, and importers may claim tens of billions in refunds on previously collected tariffs.
That is on top of the permanent extension of tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Energy
The convergence of budget priorities, trade disputes, and regulatory changes has reshaped America’s energy landscape.
The rollback of clean energy incentives and the redirection of federal support toward oil and gas have triggered a sharp rebalancing of investment flows.
More than $679 million in federal support for offshore wind projects has already been rescinded, and renewable investment in the U.S. fell by $20.5 billion in the first half of 2025.
Several large-scale wind and solar projects have been delayed or cancelled outright.
Meanwhile, oil and gas producers are thriving.
Deregulatory measures have dismantled emissions restrictions, reversed drilling bans, and streamlined rights-of-way approvals.
There has been a decisive tilt toward fossil fuels.
And that has us watching the major oil and gas players:
- ExxonMobil (Ticker: XOM)
- Chevron (Ticker: CVX)
- ConocoPhillips (Ticker: COP)
- Valero Energy (Ticker: VLO)
Pipeline and infrastructure companies like Kinder Morgan (Ticker: KMI) and Williams Companies (Ticker: WMB) are also seeing some love.
The administration’s budget choices redirecting federal funds from renewable programs into fossil fuel infrastructure and exploration support this thesis.
And that is bad news for the green transition.
Whether this represents a temporary retrenchment or a longer-term reversal of the green transition will depend on how courts, markets, and future elections respond to the policy choices being made today.
Come find another winning trade with us in our next live session.
Cutting Through the Noise for You,
Frank Gregory