China Clamp Down

FRANK GREGORY

August 5th, 2025

Hey Influence Traders,

 

We’ve been watching a couple of REE companies.

 

MP Materials (Ticker: MP) – operates the Mountain Pass mine, the only active rare-earth mine in the U.S., producing primarily light rare earths such as neodymium, but plans to expand into heavy rare earth separation and magnet production.

 

China’s export control squeeze has driven up prices and has highlighted the urgency of developing domestic processing capacity.

 

The led the U.S. Department of Defense to invest massively in MP, including an agreement to become its largest shareholder via a $400 million stake and backing its new “10X Facility” for magnet production.

 

While MP’s ramp-up into heavy rare-earth separation may take time, they have tailwinds.

 

USA Rare Earth (Ticker: USAR) – similar to MP, USAR is a domestic player working on heavy rare-earth supply.

 

While they have made progress, they are not yet production-ready at scale.

 

Operations are expected to mature later in 2025.

 

Both MP and USAR are heavily influenced by news from China.

 

For example, following news a few months ago of a U.S.- China trade agreement granting China’s export concessions, both MP and USAR stocks fell sharply, while the recent news saw them pop.

 

That volatility will not change.

 

China continues to control over 90% of global heavy rare-earth processing, giving it significant geopolitical leverage and negotiating power.

 

And while the flow of rare earth magnets from China won’t stop, defense-related exports may remain restricted.

 

Fortunately, the U.S. government is finally recognizing the strategic vulnerability.

 

Critical U.S. defense platforms, from F‑35s to radar systems and missiles, rely heavily on these elements, leaving the U.S. exposed to supply shocks.

 

That is why the U.S. is accelerating domestic supply efforts, implementing price floors, supporting startups like MP, USAR and others, and exploring partnerships in countries like Ukraine and Saudi Arabia.

 

Other REE stocks we are keeping an eye on include:

 

Lynas Rare Earths (Ticker: LYC) – operates the Mt. Weld mine in Western Australia and the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia.

 

LYC was the first commercial producer outside China to separate heavy rare earths … a critical milestone for supply diversification

 

We are watching them because they are planning a heavy-REE facility in Texas.

 

Critical Metals Corp (Ticker: CRML) – developing the Tanbreez rare-earth project in Greenland, and the Wolfsberg lithium project in Austria, targeting both lithium and REEs.

 

The U.S. government has provided CRML up to US $120 million in export-import bank loan capacity to fund the Tanbreez development.

 

American Resources Corp (Ticker: AREC) – operates a modular refining platform via ReElement Technologies, capable of economically refining both light and heavy rare earth oxides using Ligand Assisted Displacement (LAD) chromatography.

 

What does that mean?

 

They recycle waste into usable REE.

 

Specifically, AREC recycles coal by-products, mine tailings, spent lithium-ion batteries, and e‑waste into magnet-grade REE without relying on mining.

 

Come find another winning trade with us in our next live session.

 

Cutting Through the Noise for You,

 

Frank Gregory

Frank Gregory

Frank Gregory

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About the Author

Frank Gregory

Frank Gregory

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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