Why Were We Down?

BY MARK SEBASTIAN 

May 21, 2025

Hey Traders,

 

Pretty inside day for the market.

 

There was one opportunity to put on a trade here:

At the bottom the S&P 500 was down 45 points and closed the day down 23. That was your only shot … so why were we down?

 

More bond market fears. TLT is still dangerously close to 85, and the 30 year and 10 year yields are all near recent highs:

Yields are dangerously close to the breaking point – all that would need to happen is a catalyst for this to blow up.

 

Today, we have a 16 billion dollar 20 year bond auction, which is worth watching. On Thursday we have an 18 billion dollar 10 year auction … ditto.

 

That said, heading into expiration VIX futures appear to be yawning this away. Despite the S&P 500 being down, VIX was down too:

The curve is pretty darn steep. That’s going to have a really bearish effect on the VIX ETP’s and could lead to new lows for UVIX and UVXY and give SVIX a nice boost.

 

I like the market higher on the open. We shall see after these auctions …

 

There is still time to join Rip Zone at the founders price. This week, Andrew is going to be walking through the entire strategy with Rip Zone Traders – so this is the time to join. Plus the trading environment for this strategy is GREAT. Click here to join.

 

Reviewing Yesterday’s Trade

 

We did an overnight in the S&P 500. I like us higher on the open, but we shall see.

 

…Today’s Outlook

 

Watch the bond auction in the middle of the day. That could see things up for the rest of the day.

 

Call Ted if you aren’t currently a member – 888 872 3301.

Your Only Option,

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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