Leading Nuclear Indicators

Hey Influence Traders,

Andrew Giovinazzi and I went deep on DC and world events this past week.

We explained why forces in play have caused a seismic shift in the energy sector and how you can benefit from it.

Lo and behold, a slew of headlines later in the week echoed our thoughts.

As you know, we like to keep you ahead of the curve.

But you need to be part of the Capitol Gains experience, which you can do by clicking here.

And there’s more news …

We’re going live this Tuesday!

Virginia is up for grabs, Brazil is in an uproar and Russia and OPEC continue to cozy up.

And we’ll show you how to trade it all when you register here.

Now for my weekend ruminations …

Snitches Get … PAID!

In New Jersey, snitches get stitches.

In finance, they get paid!

An insider blew the whistle on Deutsche Bank AG’s manipulation of global interest rate benchmarks.

That information helped U.S. and U.K. regulators investigate Deutsche and led to $2.5 billion in fines against the bank.

It also led to a nearly $200 million whistleblower award for assisting the probe.

The payout is the largest ever by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Supply Chain Updates

Clogged ports continue to contribute to global supply chain shortages.

Policymakers continue to struggle with the supply chain concerns.

It is sparking issues with everything from consumer goods to semiconductors.

This has caused domestic factors to slow down or close and is hurting economic growth.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the phenomenon as a “very, very unusual shock.”

But the administration can’t decide what to do about it … or even the cause.

Depending on which talking head is on the TV, it is either a buying spree issue, a container ship issue, a port issue, or a truck issue.

Perhaps it’s a combination of all.

Clearly there is a mismatch of strong pent-up demand for goods fueled by coronavirus aid checks and higher savings rates pitted against supplies constrained by production shutdowns, dwindling inventories and worker shortages.

One headline item is clear – we have a record number of container ships parked off the California coast.

The director of the Long Beach port said the backlogs will likely last until next summer as container ships continue to arrive, despite moving to 24/7 operations.

Enter Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

He believes that Florida “can be part of the solution.”

He announced this week that:

      • “We’ve got capacity, and all of our ports can offer these businesses good incentives if they reroute their ships.”
      • “We’ve already had some ships rerouted. We expect to have more, but if you’re going to sit off the coast for days on end, you might as well just bring it to Florida. We’ve got great logistics on the ground that can get it to market.”

And, of course, the Republican governor couldn’t help but take a shot at his left wing cousins on the left coast by emphasizing that “unlike California, ports in Florida are always operated with 24/7 service.”

Gotta love Politics!

Spending Bill Watch

We are on watch for the final version of the spending bill.

Speaker Pelosi stated this week that an agreement is imminent.

But a lot of cutting still needs to occur.

That’s why Sen. Joe Manchin was not so optimistic.

What we know for sure is that the progressives are not happy.

Their optimism for seismic social change has dwindled.

What is on the rise is inter-party finger-pointing.

It’s going to make for another interesting week on the Hill.

And we will continue to monitor and analyze the situation in Capitol Gains.

One thing we do know is that green energy pushes need to be reevaluated (more on that below).

Revolving Doors

My wife often asks me, what exactly do you do?

I explain to her that I analyze how the actions of DC and Wall Street intersect, including the revolving door of players that move between the two.

She said – “Example?”

I said – “Vaccines!”

Many have wondered how vaccines and boosters with limited testing data have been so easily fast tracked, approved and heavily pushed by the administration.

Here’s three reasons that highlight the revolving public-sector, private-sector revolving door that is a pillar of my system.

      • Pfizer (Ticker: PFE): Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb sits on the board of Pfizer.

He also sits on the boards of Illumina (Ticker: ILMN) and Tempus Labs, which sell FDA-authorized COVID-19 test kits.

Finally, he sits on the board of Aetion, which partners with the FDA to research COVID-19 policy.

      • Moderna (Ticker: MRNA): Stephen Hahn, who led the FDA when it authorized MRNA’s COVID shots, now is an executive with Flagship Pioneering, the VC firm that helped launch MRNA, and which holds 20 million shares valued at $6.5 billion.

      • Johnson & Johnson (Ticker: JNJ): JNJ board member Mark McClellan has served in a number of government positions and was the FDA commissioner from 2002-2004.

Follow the money and the revolving doors!

Uranium Squeeze

After our Wednesday event I got a number of questions about uranium.

I hinted that a big squeeze may be coming, and folks asked me to elaborate, so here goes:

Many pushing for a green energy future have not been fans of nuclear energy.

But the reality is slowly setting in that we can’t go green without it … and it may be a bigger part of the equation than ever.

The core of nuclear power (no pun intended) is uranium.

And after many years of lackluster performance, the commodity is running hot and about to get hotter.

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust holds 1/3 of the market, continues to buy, and since August has been taking uranium out of market circulation.

SPUT has removed over 15.3 million pounds of uranium, all told. For perspective, a gigawatt-class reactor uses around 450,000 pounds per year.

On top of that, a contact at the SEC let me know this past week that another fund backed by the world’s largest uranium producer, Kazatomprom, is raising up to $500 million to also buy uranium.

If ANU Energy OEIC, in which Kazatomprom is participating, also removes (i.e., stacks and stores) uranium, a price squeeze could be a go.

And that is why Andrew and I will continue to make #PowerMoves for you in the Capitol Gains portfolio.

Be sure to join us LIVE on Tuesday.

Cutting Through the Noise for You.

Frank

Manchin Tax

Hey Influence Traders,

As President Kennedy once noted, “When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity.”

With the world suffering from supply chain shortages and feckless leadership coming from DC, many see such crises as danger.

But I see profit opportunity.

That is why trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi and I are going live tomorrow night to discuss a sector in which we see great potential in the coming months.

We’ll go “insider deep” on the how and why of this sector and identify exclusive  trades for attendees to “Capitolize” on that opportunity.

Lock in your spot today.

I’m loading up for Wednesday night, so I’ll just give some quick thoughts.

Congress is back to negotiate the spending bill.

Sen. Bernie Sanders wanted a $6 trillion bill.

The consensus was a $3.5 trillion bill.

But now the odds makers are putting the final bill somewhere between $1.8-$2.2 trillion.

Chop It Up

One marquee provision on the block is $150 billion to promote the use of clean energy sources by utilities, a program opposed by Manchin.

After all, he comes from coal country.

That opposition has angered many in his party, particularly the progressive wing.

Perennial tweeter AOC tweeted that it “is a moral imperative for humanity and our planet’s future to reduce and eventually eliminate emissions … there are many ways to do it, but we can’t afford to give up. Biden admin is already backing too many pipelines – we need clean energy.”

Despite the opposition, President Biden is still confident that he can get a deal done that will “fundamentally alter” the American economy.

Some would argue that he’s done enough “altering” in his first 10 months.

The Democrats can’t lose Manchin since they are going to need all 50 Dem votes to pass their bill.

That is why the bill will drop in size and scope.

It’s also why many believe that the clean energy provisions are dead on arrival.

That has Dems scrambling to focus on other clean energy focus areas:

      • $300 billion to extend existing tax credits for utilities, commercial businesses and homeowners that use or generate electricity from zero-carbon sources such as wind and solar
      • $32 billion in tax credits for individuals who purchase electric vehicles
      • $13.5 billion for electric car charging stations
      • $9 billion to update the electric grid, making it more conducive to transmitting wind and solar power
      • $17.5 billion to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from federal buildings and vehicles

Regardless of what stays in or is chopped out, the final bill will still be massive.

Just like the ideas coming out of Wednesday’s event.

Be there for the October Surprise.

Cutting Through the Noise for You.

Frank

 

Thar She Blows!

Hey Influence Traders,


Here’s the situation on the ground …


  • The world is suffering from current and looming supply chain driven shortages.

  • US politics have ground to a halt.


But where many see crisis, I see opportunity.


That is why trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi and I are going live Wednesday night to discuss a sector in which I see great opportunity in the coming months.


We’ll go “insider deep” on the how and why of this sector and identify some trades to “Capitolize” on that opportunity.


Lock in your spot today.


In the meantime, and to warm you up, here are my weekend ruminations.


Janet it the Helm


In “never let a good crisis go to waste” news, the debt ceiling fallout has produced an interesting proposal. 


Last month, House Budget Committee chairman John Yarmuth (D-KY) and Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) introduced a bill that would transfer the responsibility for raising the debt limit from congress to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.


Ever the modest egalitarian, Yellen stated her backing for that plan.


Speaker Pelosi chimed in that the bill “has merit.”


What can go wrong with giving 100% of the authoring over the US debt limit to one unelected person?


Not in My Back Yard


Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is not happy with the opposition to Joe Manchin of West Virginia over the spending bills, and he let it be known … in Manchin’s hometown newspaper.


Joe was not happy.


West Virginia is sometimes the brunt of jokes, but never let it be said they don’t have proud citizens.


In a public rebuke, Manchin took Sanders to task for interfering in West Virginia politics and told him to stay in Vermont where he belongs.


The move, meant to pressure Manchin to vote in favor of the $3.5 trillion spending bill, appears to have backfired.


Manchin doubled down on his opposition stating that much of the spending is reckless and he’s not voting for the bloated bill and that “no op-ed from a self-declared Independent socialist is going to change that.”


More drama for the already drama-ridden budget negotiations.


Who’s in Charge?


If you want to know who is in charge of something, look at the folks who don’t show up for the global strategy meeting — spoiler alert, it’s not the US.


Afghanistan has been in a tailspin ever since the US’s withdrawal.


The economy is collapsing and there is a world-class cache of natural resources at stake.


Italy, always a geopolitical leader (not), convened a virtual Group of 20 summit this week with the world’s biggest economies to discuss how to stabilize the country before it turns into an untenable humanitarian disaster.


The Biden admin dialed in.


Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not.


Why should they? They’ve already taken a leadership role with the Taliban running Afghanistan.


They are investing in the country to gain critical mineral access while the rest of the world talks.


Thar She Blows


I know, it’s the title of a 1930’s Australian film about the whaling industry, but it fits for today’s energy environment.


President Biden floated two proposals this past week.


  • One would ban all offshore oil drilling.

  • The second would fund the installation of wind farms all along the East and West coasts of the US.


That seems aggressive, but needless to say some wind farm producers took note.


And the US is not the only one focused on wind. China’s Xi said the country has begun building a huge wind and solar power project in desert areas.


The first phase will create 100 gigawatts of generating capacity, more than the entire wind and solar range of India. 


Good thing they’ve built up the “silk-road” Afghanistan supply chain.


They’re going to need it.


Crypto Run


The US is accepting that crypto is here to stay, although it wants to heavily regulate the asset class.


Now other world leaders are chiming in.


Russia’s Putin stated on CNBC that crypto “has the right to exist.”


He also believes that it is a legitimate means of payment.


But he stopped short of saying he would ever approve of it for the international trading of commodities important to the Motherland.


That helped push Bitcoin (BTC) over $60k.


More to come when you join us this Wednesday!


Cutting Through the Noise for You,


Frank


Broken Chains

Hey Influence Traders,

We’ve got runaway inflation indicators and broken supply chains.

But first, Jeff Bezos sent Captain James T. Kirk safely to space and back – for real this time!

All around impressive for the 90-year-old spaceman.

Inflation Concerns

We are seeing employees demanding higher wages, consumer price index (CPI) going up, and the largest Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) bump in almost 40 years.

Employment Data

Recent employment data shows that people are quitting jobs in record numbers, with many people choosing to stay out of the workforce.

There are currently 1.2 roles available for every unemployed person, with certain industries in dire need of employees:

      • Leisure and hospitality – 1.71 million job openings
      • Education and health services – 1.72 million openings
      • Trade, transportation and utilities – roughly 2 million openings

On top of that, thousands of workers are striking across the country – they are NOT happy.

More than 100,000 unionized employees from Hollywood production crews to John Deere factory workers have authorized strikes to try and get stronger collective bargaining agreements.

Thousands are already on strike, including 2,000 New York hospital workers, 700 Massachusetts nurses and 1,400 Kellogg plant workers in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

Like the Dem party, which is making a mad legislative dash to the midterm elections, unions know that they have a closing window to flex their muscles.

Unions have an opportunity to leverage shutdowns and vaccine mandates to be the white horses that save the American worker.

Consumer Prices

The consumer price index (CPI), which measures the prices of goods and services, rose 5.4% annually in September.

While that is the same pace as in June and July and just a little higher than August, it is the sustained high level that is worrying economists.

Many are saying that we no longer have a speed bump of price increases but have crossed the line to sustained increases.

Social Security Bump

One inflation indicator that caught my eye was the bump in COLA payments, which is the amount Social Security recipients receive in benefits.

COLA payments for 2022 were bumped up 5.9% to adjust for the higher cost of living, which is the biggest increase to Social Security checks in 39 years.

To put the size of the bump in perspective, over the past 12 years, the average Social Security COLA increase was 1.4%, including a 1.3% boost in 2021.

The 5.9% bump is the largest since a 7.4% COLA in 1982.

Supply Chains

“I can still hear you saying … You would never break the chain.”

Fleetwood Mac must have been thinking of supply chains, because they are broken across the globe, with ships stuck waiting to enter ports as the poster children for the mess.

Inbound traffic to ports is up 18% year-over-year, but a lack of workers and freight haulers is snarling traffic.

The Biden administration has been meeting with industry to try and find solutions.

But let’s be honest, there is little that the federal government can do at this point.

The White House did announce that the Port of LA is moving to a 24/7 work schedule to try and alleviate some of the supply chain backlog.

Walmart (Ticker: WMT), FedEx (Ticker: FDX), and UPS (Ticker: UPS) have also agreed to move to 24/7 schedules.

This will, of course, drive up overtime and other costs that will be passed on to the consumer, further exacerbating inflation worries.

Supply chains, coupled with skyrocketing energy prices, are driving up prices and inflation and threatening economic recovery.

Those issues caused Goldman Sachs to cut its economic growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022.

The supply chain bottlenecks — such as chip shortages and a resulting lack of new cars on the market — are largely due to the enduring stress on the global economy sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic more than 18 months ago. 

Capitol Gains

We’ve been watching Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (Ticker: TSM) all summer and it is again starting to show some life.

TSM also announced that it will build a factory for specialty chips in Japan and plans to begin production there in late 2024, an important step to address the chip shortages.

Trading Guru Andrew Giovinazzi and I have been working on a uranium angle, as we believe that nuclear will be pivotal in both addressing energy shortages and leading this administration’s green energy revolution.

Andrew has put on a couple of killer trades on one of the best uranium producers.

The live Power Moves Portfolio trade log is here.

Cutting Through the Noise for You,

Frank

It’s Electric!

Hey Influence Traders,

There’s a new COVID kid on the block, and his name is “anti-viral.”

It could be the turning point in the pandemic war … or not.

Congress continues to debate what will be in the boondoggle spending bill, but one thing is clear — it aims to revamp energy and transportation policy.

While the debate rages, energy prices continue to rise, which is impacting everything from the cost of filling up your car to the price of aluminum.

And it’s not just Feds getting into the energy game — Gov. Newsom of CA couldn’t help himself.

 

The Antivirals Are Coming!

Merck (Ticker: MRK) has submitted its Covid-19 antiviral for FDA approval.

The company claims the pill can reduce hospitalization by around 50%.

It’s intended to be used early in the infection cycle to stem viral replication.

The much-maligned ivermectin has been shown to have similar efficacy — but at a fraction of the cost, which is why it was thrown under the bus.

There’s no money to be made in generics!

AstraZeneca (Ticker: AZN) had an announcement of its own – its antibody treatment reduces the risk of developing severe Covid-19 or death by 67%.

This could be a revenue boost for AZN, whose COVID vaccine was not well received.

Green Energy Bills

The Biden administration wants to revamp America’s relationship with energy sources and transportation, and the boondoggle bill will take us in that direction.

Here are a few proposals on the table:

      • Power companies will be paid $150 per megawatt-hour to increase renewable electricity generation by at least 4% each year. Companies that don’t meet the mandate will be penalized $40 per megawatt-hour 
      • Known as the “Clean Electricity Performance Program,” it will reward utilities that generate an increasing amount of electricity from wind, solar, nuclear, or other clean energy sources.
      • The administration wants the United States to get 80% of its electricity from green sources by 2030.
      • The bill will expand tax credits for green energy technologies, fuels, and vehicles.
      • The bill has money to fund grants, loans, research and development, and demonstration of green energy projects.
      • The bill, a la AOC, will create a Climate Conservation Corps (think Brown Shirts).
      • The bill will ban oil production off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, which should see little opposition after the recent Huntington Beach pipeline spill.
      • The bill will institute punitive fees on businesses that emit methane.

These provisions will transform Americans’ relationship with energy and transportation, and will touch a broad cross-section of life, from the kinds of cars that Americans drive, to the types of crops grown by farmers, to the way homes are heated and buildings are constructed.

But it’s not just the Feds pushing green policies.

California Governor Gavin Newsom just banned small gas power engines and the equipment they power in the state.

I guess he has the power to do so – only in California.

Gas-powered equipment includes generators, lawn equipment, pressure washers, chainsaws, weed trimmers and even golf carts.

Permissible machinery will have to be battery-powered or plug-in. 

How might that impact consumers?

One commentator noted that in CA a gas-powered riding lawn mower costs between $7,000 and $11,000, while the zero-emissions version costs more than twice that amount.

I’m thinking of going long on really, really long extension cords.

What About Oil?

Well, it continues to rise in price.

Oil peaked over $80 a barrel yesterday.

That has American shale producers pretty excited.

There’s a rumor that Biden will ask OPEC to increase production, which is ironic since he’s been trying to quash domestic production.

And the commensurate energy shortages are not just hitting the individual consumer but also impacting commodities.

Aluminum hasn’t been this pricey since 2008.

It is an energy intensive metal to produce and is used in just about everything.

One ton of aluminum takes roughly 14 megawatt hours of power to produce, enough to run an average U.K. home for more than three years.

EV Car Battle

The bills before congress will push electric vehicle adoption.

Some car manufactures are on board, but others are not.

What separates the two sides? UNIONS!

The proposed legislation provides a $7,500 tax credit for most EV vehicles.

But union-built EVs assembled in the U.S. get an additional $4,500 in credits.

That extra incentive benefits Ford (Ticker: F), General Motors (Ticker: GM), and Stellantis (Ticker: STLA), Chrysler’s parent company, since they’ve got unionized U.S. plants.

That leaves foreign manufacturers, such as Honda (Ticker: HMC) and Toyota (Ticker: TM), as well as leading EV manufacturer Tesla (Ticker: TSLA), at a $4,500 per vehicle disadvantage.

Naturally, the companies left in the cold are pissed.

But Biden is a big union advocate and the United Auto Workers (UAW) and others the car companies they work with have lobbied hard for these provisions (GM paid around $5.6 million to 82 lobbyists through the first half of 2021).

As UAW President Ray Curry stated, “we will ensure that subsidies for electric vehicles go to good union jobs here in the U.S.”

EVs make up only 2% of U.S. car sales, so the incentives are expected to boost sales.

Cutting Through the Noise for You.

Frank

 

December to Remember

Hey Influence Traders,


I had a busy week and got a lot done.


After a quick trip to California to help out some old friends in the Special Forces community, I got back to NYC just in time for an awards dinner for Steve Forbes.


He won a Ronald Reagan lifetime achievement award for promoting freedom.


He had a lot to say about the creep of socialism in our country and made a strong case for why capitalism is and will be the best way to raise the tide for all boats.


Congress, meanwhile, claimed to have a big week but got little done.


Debt Ceiling


The big news was Republican caving on the debt ceiling … Perhaps it was more strategic than a first glance would indicate.


When Mitch McConnell proposed putting a temporary debt extension in place through December, many argued that the GOP gave up its only leverage over the spending bills.


And that makes sense on its face. If the Dems are willing to pass the spending bills through reconciliation, the Republicans had little to negotiate with besides the debt ceiling.


But there might be more to it.


Sen. Chuck Schumer and team were putting a lot of pressure on Senators Manchin and Sinema to agree to killing the filibuster to get the debt ceiling raised.


(As a side note, progressive Dems have already targeted a primary challenger for Sen. Sinema, whom they view as a traitor to the party for not blindly signing off on their spending plans and for pushing for $100 million in cuts to climate priorities.)


That’s a strong point of leverage since killing the filibuster would create open season for Dem priorities.


I think that McConnell’s decision, while only delaying the issue, was a strategic move to take the filibuster pressure off Manchin’s and Sinema’s shoulders.


After all, killing the filibuster will hurt the GOP a lot more than a short-term black eye for caving on extending the debt ceiling.


They are still going to have to deal with it at the end of the year, but the GOP hopes that the public will recognize the insanity of many of the spending proposals and not get behind a move to kill the filibuster.


Dems love polls and they are not tracking well currently.

During the fight over the spending bills, expect the GOP to focus heavily on one of the worst jobs reports in recent memory and Biden’s record low approval numbers.


They will run the narrative that Dem policies are ineffective.


This puts pressure on Dems to rationalize their spending and putting through bills without Republican support.


McConnell made clear in a letter to Biden that they will not be so generous in the future, stating,


“Last night, Republicans filled the leadership vacuum that has troubled the Senate since January. I write to inform you that I will not provide such assistance again if your all-Democrat government drifts into another avoidable crisis.”


The Holiday season might not be so joyous on the Hill.


Spending Bills


Progressives continue to play hardball on the spending bills, threatening to kill any deals that don’t fund their social policies.


Four democratic senators protested in front of the Capitol this week to push provisions they want in the spending bills.


They were led by Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey who said that the creation of a Civilian Climate Corps and a Clean Energy Performance Program, which would provide financial incentives for energy companies to transition to renewable energy, were non-negotiable.


He also said they can’t compromise between “a livable and unlivable world.”


Markey co-sponsored the Senate version of Green New Deal legislation.


He wants green provisions in the spending bill and wants them passed prior to the upcoming climate summit in Glasgow, which starts Oct. 31, so that Biden looks more respectable at the summit. (Warm up the private planes, we’re going to Glasgow!) 


Regardless of the outcome of the spending bills – climate remains front and center for this administration.


The EPA announced that it is crafting “the next generation of Clean Air Act climate regulations” in a broader “initiative” or “strategy” to address pollution.


As I recently said, Bill Griffo is on spot with uranium.


Taxes


Holdout Ireland (joined by Estonia) finally caved and agreed to participate in a global minimum tax proposal.


The pressure became too heavy on the island nation.


The decision means that Ireland will give up its favorable 12.5% corporate tax rate and join a group of 140 nations that have agreed to an effective 15% rate on major multinationals. 


The decision impacts 1,556 companies in Ireland employing 500,000  people, including Big Tech like Apple (Ticker: APPL), Google (Ticker: GOOG), Amazon (Ticker: AMZN) and Facebook (Ticker: FB).


The move will cost Ireland an estimated €2B in lost revenues and cause me to rethink my offshoring.


Crypto


SEC chief Gary Gensler made clear this week that the SEC will not go the route of China and ban crypto but to expect regulation. 


His comments echoed recent ones by Fed chairman Jerome Powell. 


Gensler emphasized that the government’s focus is on ensuring that the industry adheres to investor and consumer protection rules, anti-money laundering regulations and tax laws.


Capitol Gains

It’s a tough market but we’re still notching wins.


Ford (Ticker: F) continues to trade flat, but I still like their move into EV.


I’m going to dive more into the EV game over the next week to look at the true cost of EV conversion and where opportunities lie.


Speaking of opportunities, Palantir (Ticker: PLTR) announced its second big government contract win of the week, this time a $90 million contract for the Department of Veterans Affairs.


Regardless of what’s happening in DC or elsewhere, trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi makes #powermoves in the Capitol Gaines portfolio.


Cutting Through the Noise for You.


Frank


When You’re Right, You’re Right

Hey Influence Traders,

It’s been a wild week  — some good  — some bad.

Biden, tech companies, supply chains and sneaky, tax-dodging, real estate-purchasing billionaires are having a bad week.

Vaccines and debt ceiling talks are doing well.

Bill Griffo made a compelling case for Uranium yesterday, and I’m going to give you a few more reasons why he’s right.

I’m also going to tell you why trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi was right to stick with this name

Plus you can join Mark live in the Big Money Flow Show today at 11 a.m. EST with this link.

Let’s go deep.

The Bad

      • You know a Democrat president is on the ropes when a New York Times opinion writer questions the ethics of his presidency.

The Times called out Biden‘s lack of truthfulness around the Afghanistan withdrawal and the handling of Hunter Biden emails.

Hell hath frozen over!

      • Facebook’s (Ticker: FB) shutdown allegedly cost the company $100mm dollars.

On top of that, a whistleblower testifying against the company on the Hill has folks calling for FB’s permanent shutdown.

      • Cargo ships continue to back up furthering supply chains issues — time to again go long toilet paper.

      • The Pandora Papers leaked millions of confidential documents exposing how billionaires and political leaders all over the world hide their wealth (apparently, it’s good to be Putin’s mistress – think multi-million-dollar penthouse in Monaco).

Vaccines

      • Pfizer (Ticker: PFE) has asked the FDA to authorize it COVID vaccine for kids ages 5 to 11, which would open up another 28 million single dose opportunities for the company. 

The FDA has scheduled a meeting for Oct. 26 to consider the request, and has indicated that it would issue a ruling between Halloween and Thanksgiving.

      • And a new vaccine for an old foe comes to market.

Malaria is one of the oldest and deadliest infectious diseases.

It kills about 500,000 people a year, including 260,000 children under 5.

A new GlaxoSmithKline (Ticker: GSK) vaccine has been approved that stimulates a child’s immune system to thwart Plasmodium falciparum, the deadliest of five malaria pathogens.

It’s expected to save tens of thousands of lives.

Spending Bill

There has been movement on the spending bills and the debt ceiling … thanks to Mitch McConnell going spineless.

Dem spoiler Joe Manchin backed off his $1.5 trillion reconciliation bill ceiling, indicating that he could go as high as $2.2 trillion.

His final vote will depend on what’s in the bill and he made clear to reporters that he doesn’t want “to change our whole society to an entitlement mentality.”

Unfortunately, changing the fabric of society is the goal of the progressive wing, so the saga continues.

Debt Ceiling

Mitch McConnell submitted a proposal to Dem leaders to raise the debt limit for two months to avoid a potential economic crisis.

Chuck Schumer announced this morning that they would accept the proposal to defer but not resolve the debt ceiling impasse.

Senators could vote on the deal as soon as Thursday.

Some senators described the agreement as “a temporary victory.”

Elizabeth Warren was more blunt, stating, “McConnell caved … and now we’re going to spend our time doing child care, health care and fighting climate change.”

(SEE PRIOR COMMENT ON REARRANGING THE FABRIC OF SOCIETY!)

Griff’s Picks

Bill Griffo made a compelling case for Uranium yesterday. Let me give you a few more reasons why he’s right.

Alternative energy sources are on the rise, and nuclear has to be a key component to move away from fossil fuels. 

Oil has jumped to its highest price since 2014. 

OPEC and Russia are not intending to increase supply as they don’t want to lower prices even as demand is skyrocketing.

Even if they did increase supply, the global supply crisis will not allow the sufficient delivery of oil to many parts of the world.

That is going to put further pressure on supply as the US will show little appetite to approve more production.

The recent pipeline failure in California that caused 126,000 gallons of oil to spill into the Pacific spoiling some popular beaches has folks up in arms.

California was once a major oil-producing state.

The spill has prompted fresh calls for a permanent end to offshore oil production.

The Biden administration on Wednesday announced proposed changes to the National Environmental Policy Act that would require the federal government to evaluate the climate change impacts of major new projects as part of the permitting process, like mines, pipelines, dams and highways.

It will be interesting to see how those new regs fit in with the infrastructure bill that aims to improve such projects across the States.

But fossil fuels are being taken down and alts need to step up – HELLO URANIUM!

Insight Leads to Capitol Gains

Last month, the UK government cancelled a contract with Palantir (Ticker: PLTR) regarding its national health database after privacy groups criticized the firm for lack of transparency.

The market reacted negatively to that story as it called PLTR’s tech into question.

Andrew and I dug into the details:

      • It was a relatively small contract that had little impact on PLTR’s bottom line.
      • The decision seemed to be politically motivated (think, Orange Man bad) and had nothing to do with PLTR’s business model.
      • We knew that PLTR had a solid pipeline.
      • Andrew liked the structure of some of the potential trades.

We decided to stick with PLTR.

This week, PLTR had a nice pop when it was announced that it was awarded a new US Army contract.

The contract, worth $823 million, will see PLTR roll out its Gotham Platform to users worldwide to create an intelligence data fabric.

Regardless of what’s happening in DC or elsewhere, trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi makes #Powermoves in the Capitol Gains portfolio.

Cutting Through the Noise for You.

Frank

Happy Sunday, Comrades!

Hey Influence Traders,

 

Hey Influence Traders,

 

Last time I checked, Communism is 0-for-everything.

 

Yet  in the past week, 

 

      • House leadership sided with the progressive wing of the Democrat party to put bloated social spending over stimulus infrastructure spending.
      • President Biden nominated a candidate to lead a critical banking agency who believes the communist model is better than capitalism.
      • Press Secretary Jen Psaki denied basic economics.

 

In the words of the Go-Go’s, “Has the whole world lost its head … [or] is it just me?”

 

Yes, Comrade, it has — but it’s not all bad news.

 

In Choosing Sides Is Tough News …

 

Dem moderates want to get the infrastructure bill passed.

 

Dem progressives want to get the $3.5 trillion boondoggle bill passed.

 

Biden and Pelosi had choices to make this week on which side to back.

 

They essentially choose to back the progressive wing of the party, moving the Dem establishment even further left. (Kennedy is rolling over in his grave).

 

In the end, neither side got what it wanted … a vote on its bill.

 

Progressives are feeling empowered by empty-handed opponents and moderates are just feeling betrayed by what they thought was a like-minded president.

 

Moreover, Speaker Pelosi had promised a vote on the infrastructure bill by the end of September and she, too, turned her back on the middle of her party.

 

Moderate Senator Kryten Sinema described the failure as “inexcusable.“

 

Pelosi has now pushed a vote date to the end  of October.

 

This is pitting the two sides of the party against each other, which is throwing the upcoming mid-term elections into doubt.

 

Did Anything Get Done? …

 

Incorporated into the infrastructure bill was an extension of the Surface Transportation Act, which expired at the end of September.

 

With the failure to vote on the bill, the US Department of Transportation had to furlough around 3,700 workers on Friday.

 

That caused Congress to put through an emergency extension bill through the end of October, which Biden signed. PHEW!

 

In USSR Resurgence News …

The Comptroller of the Currency is an independent agency within the US Treasury that sets bank policies. 

 

President Biden has nominated a Soviet-born emigree to be the Comptroller of the Currency, and she is AWESOME!

 

Saule Omarova graduated from Moscow State University in 1989 on a scholarship named after Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin.

 

She is currently a Cornell Law School professor.

 

She wrote a paper advocating for the Federal Reserve to take over Americans’ personal banking in order to combat big banks … the very thing she is supposed to regulate.

 

She has stated that she admires the USSR’s economy (you know, the one that collapsed) and that the US can learn from it.

 

She has described the hedge fund industry as “a-holes.”

 

She advocated for a Congressionally-established National Investment Authority, which would operate similarly to the Federal Reserve and would allocate “both public and private capital” toward the country’s transition to a “clean and inclusive economy.”

 

In addition, she’s argued that cryptocurrencies are “benefiting mainly the dysfunctional financial system we already have” and that they need heavy regulation. That means lawmakers like Senator Elizabeth Warren, who have long advocated for tighter oversight on crypto, will see an ally. 

 

Bitcoin did jump a bit this week when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US has no plans to ban crypto.

 

Let’s see what Sen. Liz Warren has to say about that … she’s gunning for Powell’s exit.

 

On a side note, the Senate confirmed Rohit Chopra on a party-line vote to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

 

Ranking Senate Banking Committee member Patrick Toomey of Pennsylvania stated that Chopra would pursue an “aggressively anti-business agenda.”

 

In the words of Austin Powers – “we won … eh, comrades? Eh?”

 

In Economics Is Hard: Moronic Socialist Ideology Is Easy News

 

Biden’s bills contain massive tax increases, particularly on businesses large and small.

 

Someone will have to pay for those increases.

Psaki claimed it is “unfair and absurd” for businesses to raise prices if the Biden administration raises corporate taxes.

 

Econ 101 says – FALSE.

 

In Sneaky Tax News

 

Although Biden has repeatedly stated that he will not tax anyone making under $400,000 a year, a provision in the infrastructure bill will fund a test program to charge Americans a fee for every mile they drive. 

 

The pilot program to research charging a per-mile fee for personal vehicles is in section 13002 on pages 508 to 519. (I’m a lawyer — I can read documents with the best of them.)

 

Passenger vehicles as well as light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks would be subject to the per-mile fee under the initiative, with fees variable “to reflect estimated impacts on infrastructure, safety, congestion, the environment, or other related social impacts.”

 

This will of course impose a massive tax on people making less than $400k annually. I guess that’s a “loophole.” The measure is intended to limit driving while we transition to clean energy.

 

Fun fact: the word “tax” is only used 1,829 times in the boondoggle bill.

 

Regardless of what’s happening in DC or elsewhere, trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi has been making #PowerMoves in the Capitol Gaines portfolio … notching more 100% gainers.

 

The latest was this big gain in Exxon Mobil (Ticker: XOM):

 

Date of Entry

Time of Entry

Date of Exit

Time of Exit

Underlying

Buy

Sell

Exp.

Strike

Outlay

Dollar P&L

% P&L

09/15

1:08

Sep21

11:01

XOM

3/1

 

Oct15

57.5 calls & 55 puts

505

$550

109%

 

Cutting Through the Noise for You.

 

Frank

“Political Cold War”

Hey Influence Traders,

The cold war between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. was marked by proxy wars being fought outside their borders.

The Hill is looking much the same today, where a fierce Senate battle between radical Bernie Sanders and moderate Democrats Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema over spending levels is being fought across the Capitol in the House. 

This battle could dictate whether Speaker Pelosi brings the infrastructure bill forward for a vote this week.

I want to see a resolution so we can get back to trading stocks!

The Landscape

Sanders, Sinema, and Manchin are all reaching out to House allies to support their positions.

Sanders initially floated a $6 trillion target for the reconciliation bill, which has been whittled down to $3.5 trillion in the budget resolution that passed both the Senate and House.

The centrists want to pass the infrastructure bill to notch a win, and then want to turn to the reconciliation bill, which they feel is bloated.

This is causing Pelosi and Democratic leaders to confront two unpleasant scenarios: either stick with the plan to bring the infrastructure bill to the floor, where liberals are likely to kill it, or delay it again, and infuriate the moderates.

Liberal Position

Sanders is pressing his position hard – maintaining that the reconciliation bill should spend $3.5 trillion “at a minimum.”

Sanders held a conference call with House progressives on Tuesday to urge them to defeat the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which Manchin and Sinema spent months crafting.

Sanders and other progressive Democratic senators believe their House allies will hold firm and stop the bipartisan infrastructure package from passing this week.

“They will not pass it on Thursday. Enough of the House members understand that they would be gutting the Build Back Better agenda,” said a Democratic lawmaker familiar with the internal discussions.

Liberals in the House are dutifully lining up to sink the infrastructure proposal, demanding that Democrats in the House, Senate, and White House first reach an agreement on the boondoggle “human” infrastructure bill. 

Rep. Jayapal, the head of the 95-person strong Congressional Progressive Caucus, stated that “We already put out our vision, and we’re going to stick to that vision.”

Centrist Position 

Centrist Democrats say the top-line spending number for the reconciliation bill is likely to fall below $3.5 trillion.

Manchin restated that “I can’t support $3.5 trillion more in spending when we have already spent $5.4 trillion since last March.”

“At some point, all of us, regardless of party, must ask the simple question — how much is enough?” he said.

He fired a broadside at his progressive colleagues arguing that the trillions in planned spending is “fiscal insanity.”

Path Forward

Word on K-Street is that bandaids are about to come out.

The House and Senate are likely to pass a short-term funding bill to fund the government through Dec. 3.

Dem leadership wants to get the infrastructure bill passed to get a Biden win.

That means that they need to whittle down the spending bill further to find the sweet spot that will garner centrist support.

That is going to piss off progressives who already believe they’ve compromised. 

But Dems need to win over Manchin and Sinema to get 50 votes in the Senate. 

In an attempt to create party unity, Rep. Ilhan Omar, ever the bridge builder, when asked about Manchin and Sinema stated that “it is saddening to see them use Republican talking points. We obviously didn’t envision having Republicans as part of our party.” 

Old Nancy has her work cut out for her.

Regardless of what’s happening in DC or elsewhere, trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi has been making #powermoves in the Capitol Gaines portfolio.

The live Power Moves Portfolio trade log is here.

Cutting Through the Noise for You.

Frank

Out of the Gates

Hey Influence Traders,

We knew this would be a chaotic week in DC, and the start has not been disappointing.

Between Infrastructure, spending, the Debt Ceiling and some bad math … the Hill is coming out of the gate HOT.

And that’s even before Mark Sebastian’s event tonight at 8 p.m. EST where he’ll reveal how to make Big Money’s biggest weakness profitable for you. Register now!

Infrastructure

Speaker Pelosi has pushed the vote on the infrastructure bill from Monday until Thursday.

She said that she would not take any bills to vote if she did not have the votes, which apparently she doesn’t … something the progressive wing of her party has been telling her for weeks.

Spending Bill

And the controversy continues to swirl around the $3.5 trillion boondoggle bill.

President Biden acknowledged on Monday that the government was unlikely to get his bills passed this week.

But challenging all known theories of math, Biden announced that his $3.5 trillion boondoggle bill should be passed because it “costs nothing.”

Many who are not mathematically challenged would disagree.

Not only will it cost money … it will cost much more than advertised.

Many are arguing that the $3.5 trillion spending figure and the $2.1 trillion revenue amount were reached through accounting gimmicks and tricks.

For example, the 5.5% increase in the corporate tax rate that will be paid by workers in lower wages, consumers in higher prices and investors in lower returns.

And the $3.5 trillion spending “compromise” includes entitlement phaseouts and phase-ins, which will cause the true cost to be at least $5 trillion.

Debt Ceiling

On Monday, Senate Republicans refused to allow Democrats to lift the limit on federal borrowing, moving the country closer to a government shutdown and a federal debt default.

The forced stalemate by Republicans is an attempt to stymie Democrats attempts to keep the government running and enact Biden’s ambitious domestic agenda.

The blocked package would have kept all government agencies funded through Dec. 3 and increased the debt ceiling through the end of 2022. But it needed 60 votes to move forward in the Senate, and 48 to 50 didn’t do it (in a procedural move, Majority Leader Schumer also voted “no” to permit reconsideration of the bill at a later date).

The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that without a suspension or raising of the ceiling there will be a risk of default between Oct. 15 and Nov. 4.

Some Good News

One positive piece of news, Democratic lawmakers announced that they plan to raise the $600 threshold proposed by Joe Biden for bank transaction reporting to the IRS. They did not indicate what the new level would be, but word is it could land on or near the current $10,000 level.

Investment Announcements

With the approval of vaccine boosters, Pfizer (Ticker: PFE) stands to make $26 billion on the jabs.

Ford (Ticker: F) announced that it plans to spend $7 billion on its first US assembly plant in decades, as well as on three battery plants to push heavily into the EV game.

Regardless of what’s happening in DC or elsewhere, trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi has been making #Powermoves in the Capitol Gains portfolio.

Cutting Through the Noise for You.

Frank