VIX tries hard to decide if the worst is over

BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI

March 13, 2025

Yo Pit Crazies,

For a while I thought I could say the worst is over for VIX and the stockmarket. That would be the snappy title for Market Action Today but alas I can not say that. At 3:57 pm ET I was looking at a sub-24 close for VIX and by

4:15 pm VIX ticked back over 24 again. That smashing rally we had in the S&P 500 Trust ETF (Ticker: SPY) on the open, all gone, or at least cut in half.

There are many factors at play as to why today was significant.

I will lay them out here.

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The CPI number came in very light

That means that the plan hatched in the White House is coming together. Egg inflation aside, prices rose less than expected and my guess is that is from a lack of confidence in the last month from just about everybody making decisions. Tariffs and mad government spending cuts are making folks feel nervous.

Congress only passing a $1 billion in spending cuts makes it even worse. The good news about Congress is that they are tone deaf no matter who is in charge. Congress is borrowing .50 for every dollar it spends and somehow they seem to think they are a good job.

SPY range of the last 10 days.

As much as my retirement account wants the selling to be over, it does not appear to look that easy although the range on Wednesday was much less. This leads me to believe VIX should drop below 24 and head lower in the coming weeks.

We are not going to get the parabolic rally in SPY without the Fed changing course. We beat around until there is some movement out of D.C. but for the most part the air should come out of the volatility balloon so expect lower VIX this week.

To Your Trading Success,