BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
February 11, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
The old saying goes, If the NFC wins the championship, stocks will have a good year. Right now there is a fight brewing with judges being able to shut down the Executive Branch when Trump writes an Executive Order. Depending on who I listen to, the answer is yes or no. My guess would be how can an executive not be in charge of his own budget? It does appear the last POTUS was spending quite a bit but that is not clear if it was any different from any other. What is clear is money went out the door for very unnecessary things.
Will Congress step in and put a halt to wasteful spending? So far the answer is just to complain about how Pres Trump is stopping it. The average person, who pays taxes, is not happy with how much money goes out the door. More and more reports come out on a daily basis.
What has all this done for stocks? Well, a big fat nothing. Stocks as one can see from below are unchanged from when DJT took office. Things are bouncy but ultimately not really taking off or falling apart.
1 month SPX chart with 1 day candles
So if SPX is not doing anything, what is?
This is the indicator that has the best nose right now.
The Barclay iShares US 20+ year Govt bond ETF (Ticker: TLT)
Below is a 1 year chart of the TLT. Bond prices are lower than they were a year ago and no surprise with the insane amount of government spending and record deficits outside of war or COVID nonsense. It is hard to believe that the money is going nowhere but it is increasingly looking like that.
1 year TLT CHART with 1 day candles
Below is the 1 month TLT chart and since the inauguration of President Trump, and D.O.G.E. moving full speed the bond market is looking brighter.
1 month TLT with 1 Day Candles
This is a good turn of events and I believe traders are looking closely at how D.O.G.E. makes progress. The injunctions from activist Federal judges have not been well received by the market. A flat to healthy TLT should be good for stocks in the short term.
See how Frank and I trade it here.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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