BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
December 31, 2024
So my dear readers you do not get all five events at once.
You get 1 per day
Every Day.
And you now ask how can I “predict” a volatility event? Well I have been in the option game for 35 years as of the end of 2024. A number that is quite nuts to me and to be honest I hope I have a Golden Jubilee in 15 years hence.
What I am predicting is the likelihood of a repeatable pattern. I would venture to say that is how most trading is. Finding a pattern and seeing if it repeats itself. Below here is the election volatility of 2024. Traders were so freaked out by the chance of something happening that they bid up option prices for a big move. And they got that big move but it was straight up in stocks.
VIX 6 month chart with 1 day candles
If some of my volatility jargon is vexing, head to the glossary.
When is the next event then? The last one was good for Option Pit traders and this one could be just as good. This is one out of five.
You want to click here to find out when that is.
The Inauguration is Jan 20th, VIX expires Jan 22nd.
I am not saying anything is going to happen untoward but traders price the “maybe something might happen” into their trading. As of this past week we got another surprise run in VIX prior to the Inauguration right in the middle of the Santa Rally.
From a trading perspective, anything can happen in the short term but there will be great volatility shorting opportunities around the Jan 20th Inauguration. We might see some play into Jan 6th as well with the shorting opportunities just into and out of that date.
Stay Tuned for the my next Big Vol Event!
The Options Insider Radio Networks Vol Views is a little extra volatility insight with Mark or myself every Friday.
That higher volatility usually does not last and VXX could be my vehicle to buy puts going into the Jan 20th.
Stay tuned for more Reverse Split Special Situations at Option Pit.
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
See what's hot at option pit
CAPITOL GAINS: SMR Aug16 7 call closed for a 150% gain
DELTA STRIKE: VLY Mar15 8 puts closed for a 88% gain
PFE May17 26 calls closed for a 66% win
OP MENTORING: SPY Mar22/19 510 put calendars and 520 calls for 6.4% gain
OPTION SHOPPER: ERX Mar28 65 calls closed for a 90% gain