BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
November 14, 2024
Just when you thought it was safe to love stocks again with VIX falling and SPX ripping and Bitcoin going to the moon, the Senate has to go and get all sissy pants on traders and voters.
They went under cover of darkness and voted for Sen John Thune to be the Senate Majority Leader. Voters want to slash government spending and we got Mr Looks Like I like to Spend a Lot of Money on Nothing John Thune.
I guess the alternative was Sen John Cornyn which would have been worse. It took all of 1 week for Republicans to disappoint. My hope is of course he will do something useful but in trading, hope is a four letter word.
The Bond Market said this:
TLT 5 day chart
Dive baby Dive! After the short, giddy bond rally on the new DOGE of DC, Senate Leaders came up with a meh choice. As Frank Gregory says, DC moves the money.
So let’s see where it is going to go.
We are getting to a 1 year high in rates
The about face was real for the Ishares Barclays 20+ year Government Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT). Bond Traders want a real hawk for spending and Sen Thune did not fit the bill for today, no pun intended.
The only thing that can unhinge the euphoria is rates and government spending. The USGov is going to spend and Frank is sure where it is going. Check that out here.
If bonds hold up, 6000 SPX will be the new floor with 12 VIX, if not, 5500 SPX and VIX back to Zone 3.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
Andrew Giovinazzi
30-Year Trading Pro
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