GLD Breakdown

BY MARK SEBASTIAN 

October 18, 2023 

Each week, I’ll give an overview of a stock and Licia Leslie will follow that up with a chart analysis the next day. Bill Griffo will chime in with macro analysis and Andrew Giovinazzi will then finish out the week with a volatility breakdown.

Have a stock YOU want us to review? Email my team here. – Mark

Hey Traders,

 

Normally I would be talking about changes in the choice of consumers,  breakthroughs in technology, or big policy changes in the US government to lead into this week’s stock.

 

But this week’s stock is different because it’s not a stock … it’s an asset class.

 

An asset class is something like bonds, equities (stocks), volatility, or the dollar. This week we are going to be taking a hard look at the precious metals, namely gold.

 

No I am not a gold bug – never have been, never will be. I don’t need to stockpile a commodity to make myself feel financially stable; instead, I trade.

 

But that doesn’t mean I don’t see the value in owning gold.

 

It has been craved by humans since before written history … it clearly has value.

 

Look at the national debt, something that caused gold to explode in 2011:


 

It’s only going up.

 

Yet GLD, the ETF that tracks gold:


 

It’s high, but below the peaks of 2011.

 

And in the last 6 months, as US debt is only going up…


 

Yep, it’s down.

 

Over the next couple of days, you’re going to see some expert chart analysis from Licia and a real fundamental dive from Bill.

 

I am good at analyzing stocks … not so much something like gold.

 

But here is what I will say.

 

Gold is a long term store of wealth. If you are a millionaire without trading chops or you make the majority of your wealth somewhere else,  it totally makes sense to own some. From an investment perspective you are betting hard against the US dollar.

 

This is a 12 year chart of the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (Ticker: UUP):


 

Even with the debt exploding the dollar is stronger than it was more than 10 years ago.

 

Before I invest in gold,  I need to see the dollar pull below levels from 2010.

 

Until then, the charts show me that GLD is stuck in the channel it has been in for the last decade.

 

Thus, for the wealthy, diversify into gold. For the short term trader, talk to Licia.

 

But for a trader looking to make money just beyond the capital gains limit that is not a millionaire…

 

I think there are better places. I am going to be finding those places in my trading rooms… If you want to join me LIVE every day and want our charting and education suite give us a call at (888) 872 3301.

If you want to take the class on Saturday where we unveil our Option Pit Engine – we can’t make it any easier than this – just click here.

 

Questions about that? Leave a comment below!

 

Your Only Option,

 

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Founder & CEO, Option Pit

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Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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About the Author

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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