Expect a Move for Tomorrow’s Non-farm Payroll Number – Midweek Update

BY MARK SEBASTIAN 

October 5, 2023

Hey Traders,

 

I’m here with your Midweek Update… 

 

Here’s a deep dive into the current financial landscape and what to watch out for ahead of the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow.

 

In today’s video, I cover the market overview and outlook on what’s next – for both the market and volatility into tomorrow’s big number… 

 

I cover my top sectors to watch…

 

And I’ve spotted some trading opportunities ahead that I’d like to share…

 

Market Overview: The S&P 500 is down approximately 25 points, while the NASDAQ has dropped by about 116 points, constituting a 0.6% to 0.7% decline.

Volatility (VIX): VIX has surged to 19.15, indicating increased market volatility.

VIX Futures Term Structure: The front three months of VIX futures exhibit a remarkably flat term structure, with December and November trading at the same price.

Market Outlook: There’s potential for a market pullback if the current selling trend continues, which could impact VIX term structure.

Upcoming Binary Event: The market is pricing in a significant move related to the non-farm payrolls report, with options indicating a potential $44 move.

Put Wall: The 200-day moving average aligns with a significant put wall, presenting a critical juncture for the market.

Trading Opportunities: Downside options are relatively cheap, providing opportunities for bearish positions, while VIX options also appear underpriced.

Sector Watch: Financials and energy sectors are facing challenges, while mega-cap stocks like Apple and Nvidia are holding the market’s stability.

Market Signals: Keep a close eye on Apple and Nvidia, as their performance during a market sell-off may signal a potential capitulation event.

 

Watch it all right here…

Your only option,


Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Founder & CEO, Option Pit

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Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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