Yo Pit Crazies,
Quite the week we had!
The Repubs and Dems got together to agree to spend no more/a ton of money for a few years. Traders cheered. That’s because for the last 3 years, it was total madness on the fiscal front, driving inflation to 40 year highs.
I might not be in a minority when I say give Congress 2 years off, freeze spending, and keep the laws the same. We’d all be better off.
Anyway, that’s why stocks are at a new high for 2023. With recent history as a guide, government action has been poor at best, terrible at worst since just about everything they did has proven wrong on both sides.
No new spending is a victory of sorts. Going back to 2018 spending would be fantastic, but I guess I’m in dream land.
The list below is for IV 30 lows. That’s a 30 day forward vol in big name stocks.
This is a long list. How do bull markets start?
Let’s take a look.
People Returning to Work Is the Biggest Driver of Economic Growth
How many jobs were lost from a booming economy in 2020?
23 million, as estimated by John Hopkins. And we all know now it was totally unnecessary.
It stands to reason that those jobs will come back, and they have. It’s hard to imagine the economic impact of 12% of the workforce being chucked out of the market.
We have an idea of what that meant. As hard as it is to believe, things are just getting back to normal. It’s my view that only governments screw up capitalist systems. Since the market does most of the work, the government is always an artificial buffer making things work less well. The outcome of all this has been to crush Main Street stock values.
The KBW Regional Bank Shares Index ETF (Ticker: KBW) is very near to a short term high. The more Uncle Sam stops messing, the better this index will do.
Missed 25% in the Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ)? You might find it here in the tail end of 2023.
The Dow Jones Industrial ETF (Ticker: DJIA) is flat for 2023. I don’t think they will end the year like that.
To Your Trading Success,
AG