Yo Pit Crazies.
The most fun thing about my job – aside from the excellent students – is that every day is different.
If you think something cannot happen in the market, just wait a day and it will surprise you.
I was pretty comfortable with the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (Ticker: SPY) hanging out around $400 for the week. I even bought a 400 calendar with the long end on Dec. 12 expiry.
I thought that expiration was priced too low. Note the column in blue below. That is our Edge Hunter sheet saying that Monday calendars had an effective 10.47% IV before the weekend was out.
Even with the weekend discount, the IV was around 14%. 14% volatility at-the-money – in this market!
When I see a bargain, I will make a trade.
It’s easy, and I will explain.
There Are Vol Pricing Anomalies
The algo-powered sheet – a series of which I helped design with some tech guru buddies over the years – told me that the SPY Dec. 12 cycle was artificially low.
No one wanted it and liquidity providers are not in the business of juicing up options if paper does not want them. The SPY Dec.12 straddle got to $6.5 on Monday. It is trading $9 now.
The point is, the option market is “lazy” and will price the path of least resistance.
Having a tool to help tell when the market is lazy is a big help.
I bought some 400 calendars early Monday and sold them for a 20% gain once SPY got to the strike. When I first saw the trade, I did not think SPY would get to 400 from 406 in a day.
But like I said, the market will surprise you.
The Rundown
Nitro Trader
Mark is rocking theSPDR Select Financial ETF (Ticker: XLF) Dec. 30 36 puts closed for a 145% gain.
Nitro Trader loves this volatile market.
To Your Trading Success,
AG