Yo Pit Crazies,
As of this writing, the VIX is 24.71, and the S&P 500 is 4,164.
It’s a Mystery Chart!
What is really nutty is that intraday volatility in SPX is closer to 32%.
My question is how long can this go on – or is VIX pointing to a big slowdown in market volatility?
Let’s see what’s up.
The latest Vol Event Started in Mid-April
That is how I mark trading time.
When was the last big spike in VIX from a relatively low area.
A am tracing that moment to when the Fed finally stopped playing coy and slapped down the rate hikes and QT.
The consensus is that it could be bearish overall for stocks. I think we got that late March and Early April when the Federal Reserve was playing fast and loose with monetary policy.
Judging by the VIX performance over the last two weeks they seem to have settled on the course of steady raises in rates.
The stock market has fully accepted this, coming back when VIX is 20.
After that we only have oil supplies, inflation, food shortages, supply chains and the random Chinese lockdown.
That will be a forever 20 VIX.
A steady Fed policy, rate raising or not, is the surest route to a 20 VIX and 4,200 SPX.
The Rundown
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To Your Trading Success,
AG