Big Money Bets On Musk

Hey Traders,


Once again, social media stock Twitter (Ticker: TWTR) is in the limelight …


This time thanks to a potential billionaire buyout, with Elon Musk (an avid user of the micro-blogging platform) offering to pay $44 billion to take ownership of the company …


Which he will subsequently take private.


And while the media has been quick and relentless about using any and all developments of the deal as headline fodder …


It looks like some Big Money in the pits is also ready to use this Twitter drama to benefit their own bottom line …


Ahead of Musk’s buy-out proposal, TWTR shares hadn’t had an easy go over the last few months …


In addition to general growth stock headwinds, the social media name has long been plagued by controversy – from contentious perma-bans to the prevalence of spam bots, TWTR’s “free speech” motto has certainly generated plenty of strife and headlines over the years.


However, that certainly hasn’t stopped Tesla (Ticker: TSLA) and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk from utilizing the platform.


Musk’s tweets have made more than one headline over the years …


And have even landed the EV innovator in hot water with the SEC … 


And of course, he’s been known to shill his favorite alt-coins …

But it’s one thing to use Twitter … and a whole different thing to own it.


But after quietly beginning to accumulate shares in January 2022, in early April, Musk announced his substantial TWTR holdings.


He was offered a seat on the TWTR board, which he promptly rejected …


And just days later, he announced his intent to purchase TWTR for $44 billion, or $54.30 per share, more than a 50% premium on TWTR’s price when Musk began accumulating his own stake.


What happened next was a whirlwind of conflicting information, with TWTR’s board reportedly considering a “poison pill” plan to prevent a takeover …


But within weeks, Musk’s takeover was confirmed, and now headlines are alight with speculations about what a Musk-owned TWTR might actually look like.


Of course, the deal needs to actually come to fruition before these speculated changes begin taking place …


And it’s not exactly a guarantee at this stage in the process.


But Big Money is making their move …


And they seem to be confident that the deal will hold up … at least through mid-June.


Tuesday morning, TWTR’s pits saw quite the sizable block of puts come through …

With one trader selling-to-open 19,448 contracts of the June 40-strike puts for $0.84.


Quite the trade!


This put-sale netted the trader $1,633,632 in premium received …


But that was only part of the story.


The June 40-strike put saw a total trading volume of 37,721 contracts during Tuesday’s trading session, bringing its total open interest to more than 76,000 … the second highest of any TWTR contract (the first being the January 2023 55-strike call, with over 86,000 contracts outstanding).


Wednesday saw additional heavy flow in the June 40-strike put …


What’s the deal?


It appears as though this is likely a merger arbitrage move.


In other words, Big Money is betting the deal goes through, and they’re ready to collect the premium …


Of course, selling massive amounts of puts does put this trader on the hook for quite a large sum should the TWTR deal fall through.


And prior to the buyout news, TWTR hadn’t traded north of $40 since mid-January.


It will be interesting to see how much open interest accumulates at this contract before June expiration …


And if Big Money holds through mid-June, or cuts out early.


Given the risk involved, I would suspect this trader has a strong reason to believe the Musk/TWTR deal at minimum won’t be falling through anytime soon.


Your Only Option,

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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About the Author

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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