Dear Trader,
Crude is at its highest level in more than two weeks because Trump spent Monday threatening Iran and Oman. The 30-year Treasury is yielding more than it has since 2007. Futures are lower on both counts.
More importantly, traders have spent three weeks talking themselves out of a September hike, and long rates climbed anyway. Jim Bianco has been poking at that all week and he doesn't have a clean answer either.
Mark Sebastian and Hans Albrecht go live at 10 a.m. ET on State of the Market, and this is the kind of morning they're actually useful for. Expect them to get into what higher crude does to volatility, whether the long end is pricing inflation or deficits, and how you size a position when the Fed and the lenders want different things. The Anthropic IPO odds will probably come up too, since the biggest deal of 2026 might come from a company that isn't public yet.
Garrett Baldwin's I'd Trade That starts at 9:20 a.m. ET in the same room, so get there early.
This link adds State of the Market to your calendar.
The Daily News Breakdown
SIREN: Futures slid Tuesday morning after Trump said he'd put more economic pressure on Iran and threatened to bomb Oman if it interferes with U.S. plans for the Strait of Hormuz. Oil hit its highest level in more than two weeks, with Brent at $91 and WTI at $84. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, meanwhile, is sitting at its lowest level since 1982.
Nasdaq futures led the drop at 0.9 percent, versus 0.2 percent on the Dow. Yields kept climbing too: the 10-year at 4.72 percent and the 30-year at 5.31 percent, a 19-year high. Home Depot, Toll Brothers and Klarna report into all of that.
SNEAKER: Polymarket bettors have Anthropic closing fast on SpaceX (SPCX) for the largest IPO of 2026, and Anthropic isn't even public yet. Bloomberg reported its annualized revenue is tracking above $65 billion this year, up from a $47 billion pace in May, with a possible fourth quarter debut.
SpaceX still holds the crown. It priced at $135 on June 11 at a $1.78 trillion valuation, opened at $150, closed day one at $160.95, ran to $225, then got cut to $104 on lockup and capex worries before recovering to $146. OpenAI, the rival everybody assumes is next in line, doesn't show up in Polymarket's data at all.
SIGN: Traders have cut the odds of a September hike from nearly 100 percent in late July to about a third, and long rates went up anyway. The 30-year yield climbed from roughly 5.09 percent to 5.31 percent, the highest since 2007. That leaves Kevin Warsh stuck between what he's doing and what lenders want.
Jim Bianco's question: if you're bullish bonds, do you actually want the Fed to skip September? Since cuts started in September 2024, the Fed has taken 1.75 points off short rates while the 10-year rose about a point and the 30-year about 1.3. Only the 1980 cycle did anything like this, and that one lasted 119 days before the Fed reversed.