Yo Pit Crazies,

The Iran conflict is still the on-again, off-again engine behind every oil spike out of the Persian Gulf.

Funny thing: my whole options career has been fenced in by that neighborhood.

From Gulf War I to today, a dust-up with Iran has always felt inevitable, and it always shoves energy prices around more than they should move.

That volatility is exactly why energy producers look interesting right now.

One name is climbing my list… One I wouldn't touch here.

Energy's Endless Summer Trade

Vistra Corp (VST) is coming off its lows, and the Sibyl scanner is lighting up with longer-dated call buying (traders paying up for the right to buy the stock months out, betting it grinds higher over time, not overnight). Vistra runs the largest fleet of competitive power plants in the country and sells that electricity straight to homes and businesses. The dividend is tiny, less than one percent a year, so nobody's here for the income.

Here's the setup I like: last quarter actually beat Wall Street's numbers, yet the stock still slid back toward its 52-week lows, well below last summer's $219 peak. That gap between a good quarter and a falling price is where the opportunity hides. Analyst price targets now cluster around $212 to $225, with Morgan Stanley at $212.

The tailwind is simple: AI data centers are inhaling electricity, Vistra has locked in long-term power deals with the likes of Meta, and it's been buying back its own shares by the truckload. I expect VST back to the $200 area by year-end. Energy is a good long-term hold, the Endless Summer trade that just keeps running.

VST 1-Year Chart

The Victim SpaceX Just Made

Now the flip side. SpaceX (SPCX) isn't just rockets anymore. After June's record IPO, the biggest in market history at roughly $75 billion raised, it's a communications network through Starlink and, through its xAI arm, a company edging into payments too.

With that war chest and a fresh spot in the Nasdaq-100, SpaceX can upgrade and expand fast. Starlink's beam-straight-to-your-phone service is already leaning on the old-line carriers. Like a lot of legacy software getting run over by the AI build-out, aging cell infrastructure could see the same fate.

That's the headwind for American Tower Corp (AMT), a REIT (a property company that owns real estate and pays out most of its profit as dividends) that leases cell tower sites. AMT throws off a nice four percent dividend on what used to be a boring, secure business. Now investors are questioning the multiple, and it's not because folks are using their phones less.

The real question: does AMT re-rate to an earnings multiple in the teens instead of the mid-20s (how many dollars investors pay for each dollar of profit)? Rates are drifting lower, and AMT even owns a data-center business that should help. Yet the stock's still carving out fresh 52-week lows, down about 26 percent on the year.

To be fair, a few analysts have upgraded it lately, arguing the satellite fear is overdone. Maybe. But I want to see that multiple stop falling before I step in, so for me this one's a leave right now.

AMT 1-Year Chart

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To Your Trading Success,

Andrew Giovinazzi