Dear Trader,
Mark's bringing Andrew Giovinazzi on today, and Andrew's showing up with a setup he can't stop talking about.
His system just flagged about 20 stocks that took a beating this year. Most traders gave up on these names and stopped watching them. Andrew says many are already starting to turn, and earnings season kicks off next week, when these companies have to put their numbers on the table.
That same system has been right on 97% of the plays it's made. Andrew will walk through the stocks, show you how the system finds them, and explain how you can get access to it starting today.
He and Mark will also dig into this morning's three stories: oil above $105, Waller's talk of more hikes and what nearly 30% earnings growth means with the 10-year above 5%.
They go live at 1 p.m. ET. Tap here to register before to join them, and you'll also get Andrew's free special report naming three stocks to look at right away.
This link adds State of the Market to your calendar.
The Daily News Breakdown
SIREN: Brent crude climbed back above $105 a barrel on Thursday, with WTI near $92. The latest shove came from an Atlantic report that President Trump may consider new strikes on Iran before the midterms, plus more ship attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
A tropical storm headed for the Gulf has Chevron (CVX) pulling nonessential workers off its platforms, and even the IEA speeding up stockpile releases couldn't cool crude down. The 10-year yield hit 5.32%, and traders now fully price in a December rate hike.
Gas averages $4.36 a gallon and diesel sits at $6.28. With the midterms a month out, Trump says he's considering suspending the federal gas tax.
SIGN: Fed Governor Chris Waller told an audience in Istanbul on Thursday that he expects more rate hikes if the data keeps coming in as he expects. He left himself an out, though: the hikes don't need to come at back-to-back meetings, just within an "acceptable period of time," which is about as precise as Fed-speak gets.
His case leans on oil that could stay high through 2027, AI spending that's jacked up prices on tech gear, and tariff fights that won't go away. What really bugs him: inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for nearly five and a half years, and he's afraid consumers and businesses will start planning around it.
SNEAKER: Third-quarter earnings season is here, and analysts expect nearly 30% profit growth from the S&P 500. Tech estimates jumped to 65% on upward revisions for Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron (MU), and this time the other 493 stocks should outgrow the Mag-7 (the seven megacap tech names).
Breadth looks uglier. Only about 20% of stocks sat above their 50-day moving average (a quick read on short-term trend) at the end of September, and nearly 38% of the index trades 20% or more below its 52-week high.
Meanwhile, the 10-year just hit a 24-year high above 5.36%. The big banks report Oct. 13, and that's where we learn whether earnings can outrun 5% yields.