Anthropic’s IPO is down to a 2-week window in November.

Bloomberg reported the company could start marketing its shares as soon as the week of Nov. 9, putting it on track to trade before Thanksgiving. 

Work through how big IPOs get scheduled, and I think you can narrow it down to a couple of days.

That timing matters more than most people realize. 

Before SpaceX listed, I bought Intuitive Machines calls at $7 and sold them at $23.30, and that whole move happened in the weeks before the IPO.

There’s an Anthropic supplier setting up the same way right now, and I’ve got 3 price targets on it.

Why I’m Circling Nov. 10 And Nov. 11

Start with what’s off the table. Anthropic wants November, but it won’t go during election week, which takes out the first week of the month. It also won’t go the week of Thanksgiving or after, when it could get stuck in the holiday slowdown.

That leaves the weeks of Nov. 9 and Nov. 16.

Now cut the Mondays and Fridays. IPOs rarely happen on those days, because people are on long weekends and liquidity is at its worst. Wednesday is usually the busiest IPO day of the week, and I don’t think they’ll want to get as close to Thanksgiving as the 18th.

So my call is Tuesday, Nov. 10, or Wednesday, Nov. 11. If the marketing runs longer, it slides to the following week, but either way, if you want to trade the run-up, the clock is already running.

The Pre-IPO Pattern That Could Send Akamai To $165

Before SpaceX went public, its suppliers followed a clear pattern. Intuitive Machines rallied as excitement built, pulled back when the IPO was announced, then ripped higher until about 2 weeks before the listing. Then it came right back down.

EchoStar, which held an ownership stake, rallied about 18% in the 2 days before SpaceX listed.

I think Akamai follows the same pattern this time. In September, it signed a seven-year, $11.6 billion deal to supply computing power to Anthropic. I flagged it a couple of weeks ago, right before it popped on that news, and it has since settled back down.

Before that, it was dead money going back to June. And Akamai doesn’t report earnings until after the election, so you get a clean look at it without an earnings report in the way.

At a minimum, I think Akamai runs back to its late-September highs over the next 3 weeks to a month. More likely, it gets to $140, and if it builds enough of a head of steam, $165.

Our head of income trading, Hans Albrecht, put the risk perfectly: these are trades “you date and don’t marry.” Intuitive Machines ran all the way to about $45 and then fell back to around $12.

Once the IPO hits, the money that chased the suppliers jumps straight into Anthropic. So you get in early, and you know your exit before the listing.

I built Halo, short for Hunting Anthropic Linked Options, as a trading service around exactly this IPO. We’re trading the landlords running Anthropic’s computing power, the companies with outsized ownership stakes and the suppliers like Intel, AMD and Akamai, from the brain to the heart to the skin of AI.

We already have 3 trades in the Halo portfolio, 1 doing well and 2 still flat, so there’s time to get in.

My first meeting with members is Wednesday at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, and that’s where I’m putting on our first new trade. 

Join Halo Before Wednesday’s First Trade 

Your only option,
Mark Sebastian