Parking one computer near the NYSE cost me $7,000 a month.
When I was a market maker, I kept it on a rack right across from the New York Stock Exchange, so I didn’t get run over by Citadel. It’s called co-location, and I think that space runs more like $20,000 a month today.
The companies that rent out that space are the landlords of the AI boom.
And with Anthropic now reportedly aiming to start trading before Thanksgiving, those landlords are about to start making money hand over fist.
On SpaceX, I made about 230% on one trade before the stock ever listed.
Anthropic is now lined up for the same playbook, with 2 trading windows before day one, and the second one lasts about 48 hours.
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The Clock Just Started
According to Bloomberg, Anthropic could start formally marketing its IPO as soon as the week of November 9, with trading beginning before Thanksgiving. Investors reportedly see fair value around $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion, and the deal is expected to match or beat the size of the SpaceX IPO.
So I’m going to use SpaceX as my road map. Every phase that played out there in May and June is about to play out again with Anthropic.
Phase 1: Follow The Landlords
We’re in phase 1 right now. Everyone wants a piece of the IPO, but few people got in at the seed round, so the money goes looking for the next best thing: the companies that build for it and supply it.
With SpaceX, that meant names like Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines. Intuitive Machines was trading around $26 on May 1 and had almost doubled by May 28.
I bought the June 21 calls in my small-cap portfolio on April 30 for $7. I sold them on May 28 for $23.30, about 230%, roughly a week before the IPO. It was a wise move getting out of Dodge, because around then, the money starts to rotate into the next phase.
With Anthropic, my focus is the landlords, the companies renting it the space and the compute.
Akamai is one, and you saw what happened when it signed its big Anthropic deal. It got a huge pop, it has since pulled back, and I’m loving it.
The supplier list just got more interesting, too.
Anthropic’s prospectus shows Broadcom has agreed to provide up to $42 billion in financing tied to Anthropic’s AI buildout, according to Reuters, and that debt may convert into Anthropic shares.
That would make Broadcom a supplier, a lender and potentially an owner, all at once.
Phase 2: The 48 Hours Most Traders Miss
About a week before the IPO, I step away from the suppliers and look at the owners, the companies whose stake is a big piece of their own market value.
If you can’t get IPO shares, you can buy a company that owns a lot of them, then sell on listing day. You’re swapping a passive piece of Anthropic for the real thing.
With SpaceX, that was EchoStar. From Wednesday, June 10, to the morning of June 12, when SpaceX listed, EchoStar went from $114 to $132, about 15% in a day and a half. For Anthropic, it won’t be EchoStar, but several companies own a piece of it, and I’ll be trading this window in Halo.
Phase 3: When The Options Hit
SpaceX opened at $150 and topped out near $230, almost double its IPO price. The float was tiny, and there just wasn’t enough stock to meet the demand.
Then the options listed. Traders could suddenly go long with calls or short with puts without finding the stock, and liquidity flooded in. SpaceX sold off, got a dead-cat bounce, then slid for a month as traders braced for the lockups to expire.
Anthropic will be a little different. It’s letting some early investors sell into the IPO, so there will be more stock available from day one.
I still expect a rally, probably 20% to 30%, taking it from about $2 trillion to roughly $2.5 trillion, but not the kind of moonshot SpaceX had. This doesn’t feel like Facebook, which was defending its IPO price by the end of its first day.
Once the options list, my whole toolkit opens up.
I can trade Anthropic itself, plus the suppliers and the owners around it, long or short. And after the lockups settle, usually within 80 to 100 days, it starts trading like a normal stock.
By IPO Day, 2 Phases Are Already Over
Phase 1 ends about a week before the listing. Phase 2 lasts about 48 hours. If you wait for the IPO headlines to get interested, the first 2 phases will already be over.
So I started Halo, short for Hunting Anthropic Linked Options.
My members are already in 2 landlord trades, and 1, probably 2, more are on the way.
I’m watching about 25 to 30 names between the owners and the landlords, and you’ll get an alert on every entry and every exit, plus a live briefing with me every week.
There’s no auto-renewal, and if you’re not happy within 2 weeks, I’ll give you your money back.
===>Join Halo And Get In Before Phase 1 Ends
Your only option,
Mark Sebastian