Yo Pit Crazies,
Day 4 of the Ice Report. As you can see from my ongoing and very exciting Ice Report, the steady roll of nature is underway. Spring will be here in 8 days and Maine flips the switch and the days go from 20-40s to 30s-50s real fast. My Tony Soprano like infatuation with the icebergs will come to an end because they will float out to sea.
Part of this Ice Capade was because the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. My guess is after this oil will start flowing from other places in the Saudi Peninsula in the years to come and not from the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi did move some pipelines to the Red Sea over the years and there will be more. For now we are stuck with what we have.
This is about the time I start looking at longer term trades. My guess is this oil impasse lasts another couple of weeks, my end of ice season, but for now this is what we have.
My new scanner goes online soon, and I am very excited about it. The idea is to find trades and investments that will go up tomorrow. I think people will like what they see.
But for now, my eyes are on VIX…
VIX is in the Playtex “Lift and Separate” mode
VIX is now above 26 and traders are looking for even more of a move as this conflict drags on. As in the Ukraine Invasion, there was a lot of short term upheaval followed by massive changes in consumption from Europe. Right now it appears that Iran is still shipping oil to China and India and everyone else gets the bagel, as in nada. Consumption patterns will permanently change from this.
VIX Curve for Mar 12, 2026
You wonder about the “lift and separate” reference. Well for those of us old enough that used to be a lingerie ad from Playtex so let your mind wander. It is also what is happening to the VIX futures as they move from flat to a more pronounced backwardation. The futures are lifting and separating in price. This signals higher VIX in the short term.
The more this drags, the higher VIX goes. Traders thought the overwhelming smash early last week was a thing but that left us with the colder long term reality. On a positive note, this too will pass, so setting up with longer term plays will be the ticket.
To Your Trading Success,
AG