Day 3 of the Ice Report. The big chunk of ice going toward my neighbor is running out to sea. I can see blue water in the cover finally so Winter is quickly coming to an end. We are close to having the big day when the whole ice chunk just floats out with the tide. Speaking of chunks, the pic below is a good sample of how thick the ice can get when the temps are below freezing, below 25 degrees even for 2 months.
Not quite ready for the dock to go in but a polar plunge is on the horizon.
Maine’s coastline is a lot different from other states. Most of the Maine coast is working or a lot of it is anyway. Clamming, fishing, oyster farms, lobstering, that sort of thing. That is a reason Maine trades at a coastal discount to other places. Even though they are similar they are not the same.
Currently the war we are in is different from any other war. The Iran Conflict is not like any other war. Namely, no one knows what is going on.
I’ve turned to my AI scanner to find opportunities in stocks about to explode, and my last few picks have worked out well.
But despite the success, the market – and therefore traders – is pretty confused. Here’s how I know.
VIX is in Flatwardation
VIX trading above 24 generally portends a market that is really moving. I expect wide close to close days, $10 moves at least in the S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) as the narrative from the day picks up positive or negative sentiment.
5 Day SPY Chart
The last two days SPY has gone nowhere but the VIX curve has flattened a bunch. The rule for a flat VIX curve is a $1 difference between the front and backend with the VIX cash index, green dotted line, somewhere within that. We are about there.
VIX Curve for Mar 11, 2026
Traders Are Confused
A flat VIX means traders are confused. The longest backwardations are over 60 days which puts us in the May timeframe for VIX. I am done adding Apr VIX puts for now until the curve can get out of “flattness”. Last week VIX cash traded as low as the mid 20’s. That number seems a long way away now.
Two weeks nearly into this conflict and traders are having a tough time pricing this. I do not see how SPY is not 650 or 690 in two weeks time.
To Your Trading Success,
AG