Yo pit crazies,
I just got back from the fairyland that is West Palm Beach and I got to meet a bunch of my students and a few of Voz's. Some I have seen coming for a few years and it was nice to reconnect with them.
I think students who can connect at these events can keep the dialogue going for a long time with other members. The best part of Option Pit is the students. They are interesting, good at what they do and want to become better investors. That is a good reason for me to leave my rock in Maine.
It never fails when Option Pit has a company event, markets go nuts. Last year we had a company get together in Baltimore, MD and that was when DeepSeek was going to crush demand for Nvidia (NVDA) chips. That turned out to be wrong.
It does seem like the first news items that disrupt volatility are usually wrong since they are just educated guesses. Ultimately time answers the questions. Right now with algos whipping the market with every news event, and social media in general very bearish, things are going to stay volatile.
VIX 30 Day Chart
Frank Gregory has a lot to say on this and the most elucidating talk at the conference was between Frank and another Option Pit Board Member Josh Hawes. They both got together and discussed the Iran War and what it means and the answer was it is complicated. Rare earth minerals, energy, supply chain and general stability were all at stake.
Mostly this is a push against China moving across the globe. That is their take. Frank and Josh's last foray together was taking US Rare Earths (USAR) public. I am still holding shares there but the road is still long.
A Lot Moves Through the Strait of Hormuz
Oil and fertilizer move through the Strait of Hormuz. A lot of it. The bigger gulf states have most of their oil assets there to ship crude to the world. A lot of it goes to India and China so they have a vested interest in seeing this conflict end.
At this point, that would be the best, a quicker ending, but it will only happen if Iran's missile-launching capability gets degraded to zero. From what I can read, and anything is hard to believe, that is the case right now. That is the thing to look for. In the meantime, VIX will keep bouncing and stocks will keep finding new short term lows.
As long as VIX keeps making new highs, the market thinks this conflict drags on.
To Your Trading Success,
AG