Luck had nothing to do with it

ANDREW GIOVINAZZI

November 12th, 2025

Yo Pit Crazies,

I may be into Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) January 2026 80 calls for a plain nickel, but this wasn’t luck: it’s watching a “fingerprint” nobody else pays attention to.

While everyone chased NVIDIA headlines this summer, I was watching something way more telling… 

Massive institutional money quietly loading up on boring old Cisco calls for 2026. 

Not December 2024 calls… 2026 calls. 

That’s conviction money, not speculation money.

Here’s what I saw that the market missed:

If you look at the option fingerprint below, Cisco had relatively low open interest in December 2024 when it wasn’t making any news and NVIDIA was getting all the love. But by July 2025? Massive, massive, massive open interest in the end-of-year 2026 calls.

Dec 2024 on the top. Jul 2025 on the bottom

 

That fingerprint screamed one thing to me: the smart money knows something retail doesn’t. Who’s going to connect all this AI infrastructure everyone’s building? Not the chip makers—the network guys. And Cisco is the network king.

From Flash 5 Idea to Dot-Com Highs

 

I had this idea in Flash 5 based on that option fingerprint. Cisco was a bellwether for enterprise corporate spend, and if big institutions were loading up on long-dated calls, that meant we were entering a serious AI spending cycle.

So I bought some 65 calls. When Cisco did its first run, I rolled those up to the January 2026 80 calls. My net cost after rolling? A plain nickel, if you can believe it.

But here’s where conviction separated me from the crowd: I sold all my Cisco shares ($2,500 worth) and bought 20 more of those 80 calls. I had that much conviction in the move higher.

The Contrarian Play That Crushed It

 

While retail was obsessing over which AI chip would win, institutions were betting on who would wire it all together. Cisco isn’t sexy. It doesn’t get the AI hype. But every data center, every AI backend, every enterprise jumping into this space needs Cisco’s plumbing.

Lo and behold, Cisco is back to dot-com highs. Not only that, it’s making new highs.

Rising Tide Economics

 

This is what Hans and I discussed on State of the Market: sometimes a rising tide lifts all boats. It’ll even raise old boats. Cisco trades at reasonable valuations compared to the AI darlings, but it’s getting the same institutional love because it’s infrastructure, not speculation.

The earnings showed steady growth, but really, it was that option fingerprint that sealed it for me. When you see institutional money positioning for 2026, you’re not looking at a trade. You’re looking at a trend.

Still Holding for More

 

I’m still holding those 80 calls. I think there’s more room for Cisco to run, especially as more companies realize they need serious networking infrastructure to support their AI ambitions.

The market’s finally catching up to what the option fingerprint told us months ago: in the AI gold rush, sometimes the companies selling the shovels (or in this case, the cables) make the most reliable money.

To Your Trading Success,

AG

Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

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About the Author

Andrew Giovinazzi

Andrew Giovinazzi

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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