Hey Pit Crazies!

Frank and I went live on the State of the Market today talking about all things China, Rare Earths and the impasse on Capitol Hill.

While everyone’s glued to the budget drama, traders are doing what they always do – positioning for what comes next. And they’re leaving fingerprints everywhere.

Here’s the thing most traders miss: by the time the headlines hit, the smart money already moved. But if you know how to read the fingerprints, you can see smart money positioning before the crowd catches on.

The Fingerprints Are All Over Big Tech

Take Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The implied volatility – which is an expectation of how crazy a stock’s price will swing before the option expires – is almost as high as during the Liberation Day mess (when President Trump first announced broad tariffs). 

With earnings coming, these levels are way above historic norms.

That’s not random. When IV spikes like this ahead of earnings, smart money knows something the rest of us don’t. Or they’re hedging positions that would get crushed if AMD moves the wrong way.

Even Amazon (AMZN) is showing abnormally high option prices compared to past earnings cycles. Mind you, AMZN has done bupkiss for a stock in 2025, so seeing this kind of option demand is telling.

How to Read the Fingerprints

You see these clues in two places: implied volatility patterns and open interest accumulation. Open interest – the total number of options contracts outstanding – shows you where the smart money is betting. Steady accumulation usually means someone expects the stock to move higher. Right now, I’m seeing exactly that pattern in AMZN.

This is the same fingerprint pattern I spotted before (I’ll explain more on next week’s live video). While reactive traders wait for news to break, the fingerprint readers are already positioned.

My beloved VIX is stuck for another day because of the shutdown nonsense. SPY stays rangebound. But the smart money? They’re not waiting around. They’re betting on what happens after this political theater ends.

Next Week’s Homework

Before you check the headlines Tuesday morning, check the fingerprints first. Look for:

• IV spikes above historical norms (options getting expensive for a reason)
• Unusual open interest accumulation (big money making big bets)
• Call/put ratios – how many bullish vs bearish bets – that don’t match current sentiment

Think of it this way: if you saw fresh footprints in snow leading to a door, you’d know someone just went inside. Same logic here – fresh option activity shows you where the smart money just positioned.

I’ll break down more fingerprint patterns and dive into MAHA positioning on Tuesday. 

The clues are screaming if you know where to look.

To your trading success,

AG