BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
August 27th, 2025
Do you remember how the first third of 2025 played out? It closely mirrored the chart of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (Ticker: SPY) below. We experienced the most volatile month since 2020. Since then, the VIX has hit a new low, coinciding with tariff revenues starting to flow into the federal coffers. It’s unclear how the Trump administration plans to allocate those funds, but putting them toward paying down some bills might be a sensible first step.
SPY Chart for the 1st 4 month of 2024
The worst-case scenarios never materialized—in fact, the outlook is looking increasingly positive. I’m joining Licia in the upcoming SAC, and I’m optimistic about the results. This market is primed for the kind of stocks we’re bringing to the table. If you’d like to tag along with us – watch this.
So, what kind of market is it?
7 Stocks make up 27% of the SPY
As Mark pointed out in his State of the Market report, SPY remains top-heavy with AI-driven names—leaving 493 other stocks still waiting to fully benefit from the AI wave. That dynamic could shift attention toward smaller, more agile companies as investors hunt for value in an increasingly crowded SPY.
Even if Nvidia Inc. (Ticker: NVDA) delivers strong earnings, its upside may be limited—though a new all-time high seems likely. I believe the broader market stands to benefit even more. A key signal? A new year-to-date low in the VIX, which could push SPY up another 5% by year-end.
I’ve positioned myself for a binary move in volatility this Thursday—let’s see if it plays out.
To Your Trading Success,
AG