BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
August 13th, 2025
Donald Trump famously fired the BLS chief for doing a bad job with the jobs numbers. I have to say they get constantly changed. So much so that we wiped out a year of job gains in 2023 and would have been negative if government hiring would have frozen.
Now enter the CPI which is basically unchanged from last year. I thought the number could come in hot and closed most of my August VIX puts yesterday. Today we see that the number came in about what economists expected. Most of the inflation gains were in non-tariff items if that makes any sense.
Now I think I have found the cheapest options on the planet.
VIX September puts relative to VIX are crazy cheap
Pundits were calling for a market crash in August and so far it has not happened. Today SPY made a new all time high. Below is a screenshot of a select VIX September cycle put. Note how they were more expensive weeks ago than today. This VIX Sep17 15 put is currently in the money if VIX were to close at 14.73 which was the closing price Tuesday.
That is a very cheap put. Relative to the VIX index, these puts have never been cheaper.
VIX Sep17 15 put prices on top graph
As a trade it makes them a screaming buy and VIX closed at the lowest price for 2025. VIX can only go down if it makes new lows and stocks keep climbing on the AI good feelings. The only issue is that Congress is derelict in their duty and needs to cut spending. That makes rates skittish. Right now there is a 94% chance the Fed cuts rates in Sep.
That is a long wait for news and long waits are generally how VIX makes new lows.
We made this trade in Special Situations — and we’ve got more vol plays on the way.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
