Tariffs, earnings, chaos – my take inside

BY MARK SEBASTIAN 

August 3, 2025

Hey Traders,

 

Hannah and I had a great time on Thursday! If you missed the webinar, you can still sign up to watch the replay (just make sure to sign the NDA) right here.

 

Friday was a really rough day for the market.

 

  • Talk about tariffs

  • News about nuclear submarines

  • Bad earnings reports from Apple (I guess) and Amazon

Overall, just an absolutely abysmal day.

We also saw a big jump in the VIX.

While the curve is still in contango, the VIX trading above August futures puts us in partial backwardation. In simple terms—this means anything could happen.

 

We could rally hard… or completely fall apart.

 

So tread carefully.

 

Now that most major earnings are behind us, let’s take a look at which names might still have more downside—and which could have room to run.

 

On the downside, my eyes are firmly on AAPL.

AAPL has pushed above all its major moving averages and is now hovering just above $200 a share. It might break through—but I think there’s a good chance it tests $190 before we see any real buying interest.

 

On the upside, I’m watching RDDT. You all probably know I’m a big fan of this company—and it crushed earnings Thursday night.

When was the last time we saw this?

Back in November 2024—and just look at the rally that followed…

RDDT topped out at over $220 a share.

 

I believe it’s on track to retest that level during this run—and there’s a good chance it breaks through.

 

I fully expect this company to be worth $100 billion within the next 12 months.

 

Don’t miss our Ticker Highlight Show this Monday at 10 a.m. ET!

 

See you there,

Mark

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Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), where he spent years mastering the art of options trading in the most competitive environment imaginable. As Chief Investment Officer at the hedge fund Karman Line Capital, Mark manages sophisticated options strategies for institutional clients. He is the author of two highly regarded books on options trading: ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ and ‘Trading Options for Edge.’ Mark is a frequent guest on major financial networks including CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, and First Business News, where he provides expert commentary on market volatility and options strategies.

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About the Author

Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian

Former CBOE floor trader and CIO at Karman Line Capital. Author of ‘The Option Traders Hedge Fund’ with over 30 years of options trading experience.

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