Hey Income Aficionados,

My Bullish Pick: IEF – iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

This morning’s job numbers were soft, and to me, that’s another clue that AI—while exciting—might be revealing some cracks underneath the surface. It’s not just about productivity and automation anymore. It’s about real people losing jobs, wage growth slowing down, and the economy quietly weakening beneath the tech headlines.

That brings me back to something I’ve been saying for a while: yield is looking like a generational opportunity.

IEF, which holds intermediate-term Treasuries, isn’t flashy—but if we’re entering a disinflationary world powered by AI, it could end up being one of the better trades out there. If growth slows and the Fed eventually cuts rates, yields on this part of the curve could fall, and bond prices rise.

Long story short: AI might be the future, but it’s already creating a softer demand picture today, and falling inflation. That’s exactly the kind of setup where bonds can shine.

My Bearish Pick: Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN)

I’ve got nothing against a night out at Outback, especially the kind without scorpions in your boots! I think this stock might be in a tough spot.

Bloomin’ owns Outback, Carrabba’s, Bonefish Grill, and Cheddar’s. The trouble is, most of these brands sit in that middle tier—not fast food, not premium. Just… somewhere in the middle. And that middle is getting squeezed.  AI and robotics are no longer just gunning for the “muscle” jobs.  It’s the “thinking” job too now.

Carrabba’s and Bonefish are closer to upscale dining, which gets cut when people are watching their wallets. Cheddar’s is more value-oriented, but it’s just one piece of the portfolio. If people start trading down to quick-service spots like Taco Bell and McDonald’s—as they usually do when times get tight—Bloomin’ could lose traffic fast. 

The AI angle makes it worse. As automation picks up, it’s not just low-wage jobs at risk anymore. It’s the whole middle-class foundation. If that consumer gets hit, these mid-priced dining experiences could see a real drop-off.

Tune in Monday to see if one of my stocks gets picked!

Add it to your calendar here.

May the income be with you, 

Hans