BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
July 30th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
I’m sitting on the couch in my office, listening to the birds and the distant hum of waterskiers out on the lake. Their presence signals the arrival of the summer crowd—most locals don’t bother with waterskiing. An airboat passed through the cove this morning in search of clams, but the operator figured the area’s been picked clean, at least for now.
This week brings a lot: an FOMC meeting, markets hitting all-time highs, and trade deals flying in fast and furious.
But I’ve seen this before.
And I know how it ends.
We should reach a short term market peak on Friday
Here’s why:
- The FOMC is unlikely to cut rates and will probably downplay the impact of tariffs.
- Most corporate earnings will have been reported by then—and so far, they’ve been strong.
- The August 1st trade deadline with China will likely be postponed, especially with most other deals already in place.
Meanwhile, VIX futures continue to lose premium. Monday’s contracts were priced below Friday’s across the board. The only question now is how much more premium can come out easily. My estimate: at least $1.00 across all futures.
This sets up volatility products like the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (Ticker: UVXY) and the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (Ticker: VXX) for a potential beating by Friday’s close.
I don’t expect SPY to push much higher—640 may mark the upper limit for now. While a major upside catalyst is lacking, the market seems content to marinate in broadly positive news.
The headline events this week aren’t likely to move the needle, and the VIX appears poised to hit a new yearly low—if not this week, then next.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
