BY ANDREW GIOVINAZZI
July 10th, 2025
Yo Pit Crazies,
The Department of Defense is starting to flex its influence, securing a 40% stake in MP Materials’ (Ticker: MP) future production. Frank Gregory has highlighted this stock multiple times in Cap Gains, most recently on Monday following the signing of the BBB into law. I had expected a few weeks of calm to pick up MP after the initial hype faded. Instead, I opted for Freeport-McMoRan (Ticker: FCX) for Cap Gains—it’s seen some gains, but nothing like this:
3 Month chart of MP
Almost 50% in a day!!!!!
In another bombshell, the DOD announced an aggressive push into drone technology. That news has sent shares of RedCat Holdings Inc. (Ticker: RCAT) soaring in after-hours trading. We’re already holding a position in Cap Gains, and this move could position us for a potential 40% gain.
Sadly, my MP shares were called away a couple of weeks ago when it made the run to the mid-30s. I was happy with the gain and when it pulled back to the low 30’s I thought I had some time.
Unfortunately, my MP shares were called away a couple of weeks ago during the run-up to the mid-30s. I was satisfied with the gain at the time, and when the stock pulled back to the low 30s, I assumed I still had some time to get back in.
But I missed this signal—so now I want to point it out to you.
The Bid for Options Stayed Firm
What I mean is this: the options buyers didn’t close out their positions—they held firm, even after MP quietly secured a win in the BBB, with the government signaling that Rare Earth production is now a national priority. Then came the big news—a major stake in MP’s future output—and just like that, the stock popped.
The option fingerprints didn’t disappear. After the BBB news broke, option prices should have dropped—but instead, there was barely a ripple, and they remained near three-month highs. I missed that signal.
30 day IV in red on the bottom chart
However, Frank didn’t miss it, and our Cap Gains members are some happy campers right now.
I’m expecting more positive surprises like this as the DOD continues to flex its muscle, making direct investments in drones and critical minerals. Frank has been ahead of the curve on this theme for a while, and I believe there’s still plenty of runway ahead.
To Your Trading Success,
AG
