Hey Influence Traders:
I’m a student of government, history and the markets.
One thing I love is analyzing politics.
And my analysis is that the Democrats are in major trouble going into the midterm elections.
Here’s why …
The interesting thing about political trouble is that it normally starts at the top.
The key Democrat players are President Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin.
Where’s House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, you ask?
Laying low in the new year … she’s no dummy.
At the moment, Biden is pushing an agenda and Schumer is managing it on the Hill.
Those two have to make a decision – push forward with the Biden Build Back Better plan or …
Play politics and try to fundamentally alter the American political landscape.
Thus far in 2022 Biden is ineffectual and still focused on Trump.
Schumer, meanwhile, cares more about killing the filibuster and ramming through the Dem’s voting bill than addressing the economy and inflation.
Schumer has vowed to force a vote by Jan. 17 on changing the Senate’s rules if Republicans again block voting rights legislation.
Those actions will only lead to one thing … a further partisan atmosphere on the Hill.
And it is a losing recipe for the Dems.
They are political distractions that do not concern the vast majority of Americans.
Those issues are also marred by intra-party divisions, as we witnessed at the end of 2021.
They also cause voters to negatively view positive legislation. For example, the infrastructure bill enjoyed a 58% approval rating in August 2021, but just a 50% rating when it was approved in November.
That decline is attributed to squabbling and politics on the Hill.
Voters don’t like distractions and popular bills will suffer alongside unpopular ones.
It is also causing the consideration of the climate and social spending plan to be tossed on the back burner.
That bill is a cornerstone to the Biden agenda and meaningful to the Dem party going into the midterm elections.
That’s Insane
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, and sometimes the headlines tell you everything you need to know about the state of affairs in DC.
Here’s one from Wednesday morning:
“Democrats eye same plays hoping for better results”
My take is that the Dems are having a moment of complete disconnect on the Hill.
When Chuck voiced his desire to change the filibuster rules to ram through a partisan voting bill, Joe Manchin said … “No!”
“Being open to a rules change that would create a nuclear option. It’s very, very difficult. It’s a heavy lift,” stated Manchin.
When asked about leaked rumors that the President and Manchin were again discussing moving the Build Back Better boondoggle bill forward, Manchin said … “There are no ongoing discussions.”
The Dems need to focus on the economy and get their house in order or they are going to get shellacked in the coming election cycle.
Inside Baseball
And where is the insider money leaning?
Well, here’s another Wednesday headline:
“Corporations seek to rebuild bridges with GOP objectors ahead of midterms.”
After last year’s election and the Jan. 6 riot (On This Day!), Corporate America overwhelmingly ran from Trump and politicians who supported him.
That tide is taking a quick turn, with corporate America mending fences with those very same politicians who they are betting will gain more power and influence after the midterms.
Corporations can’t afford to burn bridges with the party they believe is favored to win back the House (and possibly the Senate) in the 2022 midterms.
They are beginning to loosen the purse strings on previously frozen PAC donations to Republicans.
Environmental Friendly Vehicles
One area of continued focus for the Biden administration is the environment.
Even if some of the approaches are misguided.
It is not an easy landscape to navigate, and things are not always what they seem.
For example, shared transportation solutions give the image of climate-friendly mobility solutions.
But researchers at ETH Zurich recently concluded that shared micro-mobility solutions in Zurich emit more CO2 emissions than the alternatives they replace.
Why?
Because they replace walking and traditional bike riding.
There’s always a twist!
Regardless, the electrical vehicle market is here to stay and participants are in a horse race.
Front runner Tesla (Ticker: TSLA) is being challenged almost daily.
Chrysler announced that it plans to unveil its first electric vehicle by 2025 and aims to be fully electric by 2028.
Chrysler, part of Stellantis NV (Ticker: STLA) revealed its Chrysler Airflow Concept, the “start of the brand’s journey toward a fully electrified future.”
The cars will feature an artificial intelligence system and a battery with the ability to travel 350 to 400 miles per charge.
Sony Group Corp. (Ticker: SONY) unveiled a prototype for a new SUV-style electric vehicle called the Vision-S 02, a follow-up to its electric sedan Vision-S 01 (which almost everyone missed).
SONY’s CEO announced the start of a new company called Sony Mobility Inc. to focus on the development of electric vehicles.
“Sony Mobility Inc. will harness the potential of mobility,” said CEO Shuhei Yoshida.
SONY wants to “promote the accommodation of a large variety of lifestyles within a society where values are becoming increasingly diversified.”
We’ll wait to see how that translates into the real world.
And in a bid to stay on top of the car sales market, Toyota Motor Corp. (Ticker: TM) and Volkswagen AG (Ticker: VWAGY) announced that they were investing $170 billion in EV tech in a bid to overtake TSLA as the top seller of EVs.
TM in particular is out for blood.
General Motors (Ticker: GM) has been the top-selling US automaker in every single year since 1931.
But that came to an end in 2021 when TM dethroned GM.
It’s the first time a foreign car manufacturer has topped U.S. sales.
The fact is, TM did a better job than other automakers in managing the chip shortage by stockpiling chips early on.
Personally, I like Ford (Ticker: F) because trading guru Andrew Giovinazzi is making money for Capitol Gains with that stock.
He closed another nice position this week for a better than 50% gain.
F’s F-150 Lightning EV pickup truck is selling like gangbusters, and F is doubling its production capacity in response.
The F-150 is not only important to F, but it is considered a benchmark for EV interest in the U.S. market, since the F-Series has been the top-selling vehicle in the country for decades.
F’s stock gained 137.5% in 2021 to rank it among the best in the S&P 500.
Yes, its share price is now at its highest level in 20 years, but we’ve not heard the last from the inventor of the Pony Car.
Cutting Through The Noise for You,
Frank