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On Self-Inflicted Wounds

Yo Pit Crazies,


I expect to be back at my desk today, but my talking might be a little reduced.


And, um, well, I realized this week that many of my issues with COVID were self-inflicted. You see, I was not using the steroid inhaler correctly and it ended up giving me a crazy sore throat. 


It was so sore that breathing was a problem — but I thought it was, you know … from Covid.


Note to self … read all the instructions and take them seriously!


That goes for Mark’s Volatility Edge program which is currently available in a four-month block along with a 5-pack of exclusive Bill Griffo picks.


As I started looking at the market again, I began to think that the US government was trying to cause some self-inflicted harm.


Will the Biden administration mess things up this far into the COVID game?


Uncertain Times


What the volatility market hates is uncertainty. 


While COVID rages, there is some question about when and if the government will try and perform any draconian measures aimed at “slowing the spread”. 


My studied opinion is you ain't slowing the spread and the market can deal with that.

VIX price chart

As always I look at the sustained moves in VIX.  Does it hold the highs it made or does it retreat?


I have found that as one of the best tells on a VIX move.


The Biden admin is mandating shots for all nursing home employees.  That type of rule is just one step away from more draconian enforcement, and I don't think stocks will like that much.Load gun, shoot foot, since most nursing home residents have the shot already.


 It is also clear the Fed is talking much more about ending asset purchases in the short term rather than the long term.


Again, load gun, shoot foot.


As Yoda says, either do or not do but stop talking about it.


The Fed ending asset purchases should be inevitable, but the dithering always causes more drama than it is worth.


Between the two issues, VIX did not hold its rally so at some level folks are ok with what is going on.  Federal mandates historically don't sit well with the market, so that is something to keep in mind.


Trade Idea


VIX Sept. 15 19-strike puts are $1.05 and a decent price especially with VIX coming from a recent 15 handle last Friday.


To Your Trading Success,


AG

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